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Nuclear Iran?

Recent Developments

Also see DisarmamentActivist.org for daily news and commentary.

23 April 2008: Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the IAEA, announced that Iran has agreed to answer intelligence allegations that it studied how to design nuclear bombs, which it has previously denied the reports but declined to address them in detail. ElBaradei said, "(This agreement) is a certain milestone and hopefully by the end of May we'll be in position to get the explanation and clarification from Iran as to these alleged studies." ElBaradei's spokeswomansaid the deal was struck during meetings in Tehran on Monday and Tuesday (21 and 22 April) between Iranian leaders and Olli Heinonen, the IAEA's safeguards chief and top investigator.

13 April 2008: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mohammad Ali Husseini said Iran is ready to resume talks with Europe on its nuclear programme, adding that Iran considers the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to be the only authority that has the right to examine Tehran’s nuclear dossier. Husseini also said that the head of Iran’s nuclear energy organization, Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, and his his deputy Mohammad Saeedi will travel to Vienna on 14 April to carry on talks with the IAEA chief Mohammad ElBaradei.

10 April 2008: Gregory Schulte, US ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, told reporters they should take Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's announcement on 8 April "with a grain of salt". He called the speech, in which Ahmadinejad said Iran is installing 6000 new centrifuges to enrich uranium, a "political stunt," arguing, "Ahmadinejad has a record of making bold political announcements not necessarily supported by technical facts."

9 April 2008: German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier expressed "deep concern" at Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's announcement that of 8 April that Iran had started work to install 6000 new centrifuges to enrich uranium. He said in a statement, "Tehran's move is clearly against the demands of the UN Security Council. Such a step would make the solution to the conflict more difficult."

8 April 2008: Speaking at a plenary meeting of the United Nations Disarmament Commission's 2008 session on behalf of the European Union, Ambassador Sanja Štiglic of Slovenia said, “Iran's nuclear programme poses a major challenge to the non-proliferation regime,” asserting that Iran has hidden “clandestine nuclear activities,” is pursuing uranium enrichment and heavy water related activities, is developing a ballistic missile programme, and “has cooperated with the IAEA only when pressed, and in piecemeal fashion.” Iran's representative to the Commission issued a right of reply to this statement, arguing that it did not acknowledge the information the IAEA has given about the non-divergence of Iran's nuclear material to weapon programmes or that Iran's cooperation with the IAEA has been “far beyond its Treaty obligations.”

Outside of the UN, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran is installing 6000 new centrifuges at the Natanz enrichment plant. Deputy Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran for International Affairs, Mohammad Saeedi, said the 6000 new centrifuges being installed are first generation P1 centrifuges. Ahmadinejad also said that testing of the new advanced centrifuges, which can enrich uranium five times faster than the current machines, will be finished in the next three months.

7 April 2008: Speaking at a plenary meeting of the United Nations Disarmament Commission's 2008 session, China's Permament Representative to the United Nations, Ambassador Hu Xiaodi, said diplomatic negotiation is the best way to solve the issue of Iran's nuclear programme, and called for all parties to “intensify diplomatic efforts in reaching agreement on possible ways to resume negotiations at an early date, with a view to seeking a long-term, comprehensive and appropriate solution to the Iranian nuclear issue.”

1 April 2008: Russia's ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, urged the Iranian government to engage in talk with the P5+1 (US, UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany) about its nuclear programme. Iran has reportedly refused to enter talks with the six countries, criticizing the third sanctions resolution adopted against Iran on 3 March. Iran says it will deal only with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini called the Security Council's demand "worthless and unacceptable" and said it was "based on political motivations." Churkin reportedly argued that talks with the six countries are the only way to resolve the standoff, saying, "We expect negotiations between the six and Iran, and their statements of a negative nature toward the negotiations are certainly not helpful and not constructive."

11 March 2008: The Washington Post reported that documents from "two countries other than the United States" provided to the IAEA recently "partly match information" from a stolen Iranian laptop given to the IAEA by the United States. The United States recently briefed the IAEA about "evidence" on Iran's alleged pre-2003 nuclear weapons programme gathered from the so-called "laptop of death" (see 2 March entry). According to the Post, "IAEA officials say these documents identify [Iranian nuclear engineer Mohsen] Fakhrizadeh and other civilian scientists as central figures in a secret nuclear research program that operated as recently as 2003." The documents also

purport to show advanced research into a variety of nuclear-related technologies, including uranium ore processing, warhead modification and the precision-firing of high explosives of the type used to detonate a nuclear device. Other documents point to attempts by civilian scientists to purchase sensitive equipment of the kind Iran would eventually use in its uranium enrichment plants.

The article notes that none of the documents "specifically include the word 'nuclear,' and IAEA officials say there is no evidence that any of the plans advanced beyond the paper stage."

Michael Spies of the Lawyers' Committee on Nuclear Policy emphasizes that all of this "in itself does not demonstrate a determined effort to acquire and deploy nuclear weapons." He points out,

even if we were to accept all this "evidence" as true, the IAEA Secretariat has clearly stated that Iran does not appear to have ever undertaken any work using nuclear material on the basis of the documents or laptop. On its face, it is troubling if Iran is pursuing secret studies to build knowledge on nuclear weapons, as this might suggest it intends to develop them in the future. But the scale and scope of the "evidence" that has been released so far still doesn't seem to reflect a major, serious, and concerted attempt to acquire and deploy nuclear weapons. A handful of scientists conducting paper studies over a period of a decade doesn't seem to fit very well with efforts to acquire nuclear weapons in other states, most of which did not have IAEA inspectors roving around their territories trying to piece all aspects of their past nuclear work together.

The IAEA has been careful to caution that this sort of evidence has more to do with judging Iran's intentions, rather than determining the state of Iran's compliance with its non-proliferation obligations. The Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission noted in its final report,

As it is very difficult to prove a negative, it is unlikely that the IAEA would ever be able to conclude with absolute certainty that Iran - or at least key elements within its governing system - have not had the intention to use an enrichment capability for weapon purposes. In any case, even if such intentions never existed, there could be a change of mind once Iran's enrichment technology was fully operational. Accordingly, the question of intention is not decisive.

Spies says, "Following from this, one can conclude that the conversation about intentions is a distraction from what some of the real issues are: the role of the US and Iran in the greater Middle East and bilateral relations."

10 March 2008: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad-Ali Hosseini told Press TV that Iran would continue its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Hosseini said Iran "will continue to work with the IAEA and to conduct its nuclear activities within the framework of the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and international regulations." He also expressed Iran's readiness to hold talks with the P5+1 on issues agreed to by both sides.

The European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, said the EU wants "to continue on the negotiating track." Solana said he has not been approached by Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, to resume talks.

9 March 2008: Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said his country is ready to negotiate with the European Union if there could be "meaningful and effective" results. He said, "We are still supporters of negotiations that have a precise objective, a defined programme and are assured of providing us with results."

7 March 2008: During a media briefing in Cape Town, South African Foreign Affairs Chief Director of the UN Xolisa Mabhongo explained why South Africa voted in favour of the new sanctions resolution against Iran on 3 March. He said South Africa managed to make interventions in the resolution and introduced amendments which helped to address some of its concerns. He said some of the interventions included:

  • The specific recognition of the latest report by the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA); South Africa wanted the resolution to acknowledge an IAEA report stating that some progress had been made in Iranian cooperation with the nuclear watchdog.
  • The understanding that once Iran had established the peaceful nature of its nuclear activities, there would be no discrimination against it and that it should be treated as any other member of the non-proliferation treaty.

Two other factors reportedly played a part in "swaying" South Africa:

  • The call by Libya for the need to establish a Nuclear Free Zone in the Middle East, which was included in the resolution.
  • A call by Vietnam for recognition of International Law and Civil Aviation Law, which was included in resolution.

Mr. Mabhongo argued that South Africa was not persuaded by the major powers or the visit by French President Nicolas Sarkozy last week.

3 March 2008: The UN Security Council voted 14-0 (with one abstention, Indonesia) in favour of a new sanctions resolution against Iran's nuclear programme, Resolution 1803 (2008). Acting under Article 41 of Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter - regarding binding measures not involving armed force - the Council affirmed its earlier decision that Iran should, without delay, suspend its uranium enrichment and heavy-water-related projects, as previously stipulated in resolutions 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), and 1747 (2007).

For the resolution text and summary of statements, please see the UN Press Release.

The IAEA Board of Govenors met in Vienna ahead of the Security Council vote. According to AP, "depending on what was decided there, the IAEA's board was considering tabling a resolution of its own, pressing Tehran to come clean on its disputed nuclear activities." A diplomat said, "a resolution by the IAEA board -- the first in two years -- would make it very clear that the Iranian nuclear dossier was far from being closed." US envoy to the IAEA, Gregory Schulte, said, "despite some progress in addressing past issues, troubling questions remain about Iranian activities that strongly suggest a clandestine weapons-related programme. I anticipate that the board will be supporting the Security Council in calling for Iran to suspend its enrichment-related activities."

However, AP also reported that the Russian delegation to the Security Council "set conditions" for its approval of new sanctions against Iran, which were for European nations to drop plans for an IAEA resolution. Anonymous diplomats said Russia was upset that it was not told earlier about such plans, while Grigory Berdennikov, chief Russian delegate to the IAEA, told the AP that he was not happy about the planned resolution.

2 March 2008: Jeffrey Lewis posted some information on ArmsControlWonk.com on the briefing that the United States gave the IAEA about "evidence" on alleged Iran's pre-2003 nuclear weapons programme from the so-called "laptop of death", pointing out that the details available in various media reports indicate that nothing new was presented - that the details were first reported in 2005.

29 February 2008: US National Security Council spokesperson Gordon Johndroe said the United States expects the UN Security Council will vote on more sanctions against Iran "relatively soon." He argued, "I think that everyone's in agreement that Iran should not be enriching uranium, so let's let the vote take place." Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said another sanctions resolution will not stop Iran from enriching uranium.

28 February 2008: The UK and France introduced a draft resolution against Iran's uranium enrichment at the Security Council. Non-permanent members South Africa, Indonesia, Libya and Vietnam expressed reservations about the proposed resolution. South Africa's ambassador to the IAEA, Abdul Minty, said the new IAEA report showed "increasing confidence" that Iran did not intend to use its nuclear program for military purposes and that Iran was cooperating with the IAEA.

According to the Reuters article, Minty "conceded that declassified Western intelligence indicating Iran conducted high-explosives tests and design work on a missile warhead as part of a covert nuclear arms program was a serious concern that needed to be addressed by Tehran." Mike Veiluva of DisarmamentActivist.org pointed out on 26 February,

The “one remaining issue” relevant to the programme is “the alleged studies (by Iran) on the green salt project, high explosives testing and the missile re-entry vehicle.” (”Green salt” is an alleged uranium conversion process.) The report references discussions in late January; however, Iran was only given access to US information pertinent to these matters in February. The timing is not explained; Iran was given literally days to address this purported new evidence. The UK is now contending that this evidence indicates Iran was conducting weapons work after 2003, but the larger question is why we are only hearing of this now - perhaps the proximity of a new UN Security Council meeting has something to do about it.

For developments from November 2005 - February 2008, please see our Archived News.


Government and UN Documents

IAEA Board Members

Security Council Resolution 1803, 3 March 2008

IAEA Director General's Report: Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security
Council resolutions 1737 (2006) and 1747 (2007) in the Islamic Republic of Iran
, GOV/2008/4, 22 February 2008.

US National Intelligence Estimate, released 3 December 2007.

IAEA Director General's Report: Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security
Council resolutions 1737 (2006) and 1747 (2007) in the Islamic Republic of Iran
, GOV/2007/58, 15 November 2007.

IAEA Director General's Report: Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran, GOV/2007/48, 30 August 2007.

IAEA Director General's Report: Implemenation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and Relevant Provisions of Security Council Resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran, 23 May 2007.

Security Council Resolution 1747, 24 March 2007.

Joint Statement on UN Security Council Resolution 1747 by the P5+1, 24 March 2007.

Remarks by Ambassador Alejandro D. Wolff, the Permanent US Representative to the United Nations on Iran at The United Nations, New York, 20 March 2007.

Report on Iran Safeguards Sent to IAEA Board, Security Council, 22 February 2007

Security Council Resolution 1737, 23 December 2006.

Explanation of Vote by Ambassador Alejandro Wolff, Acting US Permanent Representative, on Iran and the adoption of UNSC resolution 1737, 23 December 2006.

Explanation of Vote by Hon. Alexander Downer, MP, Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs, on the adoption of UNSC resolution 1737, 23 December 2006.

Security Council Resolution 1696
, 31 July 2006.

European Union draft resolution on Iran, 20 July 2006.

Ahmadinejad's letter to Bush (also see LCNP's comments on the letter)

British/French draft resolution on Iran, 3 May 2006. (Also see LCNP's comments on this draft)

Security Council Presidential Statement on Iran, 29 March 2006.

IAEA Report on Iran by the Director General, 27 February 2006.

IAEA Adopted Resolution, GOV/2006/14, 4 February 2006.

Mohamed ElBaradei, Nobel Lecture (Oslo: Nobel Foundation, 10 December 2005)

Mohamed ElBaradei, "Reflections on Nuclear Challenges Today," Statement of the Director General (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Alistair Buchan Lecture, 6 December 2005)

"UN atomic watchdog calls on Iran to show its nuclear activities are peaceful," UN Press Release, 25 November 2005.

IAEA Director General's Statement, 24 November 2005

Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran, IAEA Board Report, 18 November 2005.

"Iran Nuclear Issue Requires International Cooperation, Says US," Washington File Press Briefing (Washington, DC: Bureau of International Information Programs, US Department of State, 18 November 2005)

Communication from the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the IAEA, 17 November 2005.

Henry Sokolski and Patrick Clawson (eds.), Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, October 2005)

Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran, Resolution, 24 September 2005.

Communication from the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the IAEA, Iranian Nuclear Policy & Activities, 12 September 2005.

Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement in the Islamic Republic of Iran, IAEA Board Report by the Director General, 2 September 2005.

Working paper submitted by Iran to Main Committee I, 2005 NPT Review Conference, 19 May 2005.

Peaceful uses of nuclear technology,” Working paper submitted to Main Committee III, 2005 NPT Review Conference, 17 May 2005.

Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, "Nuclear Proliferation and the Potential Threat of Nuclear Terrorism," 8 November 2004.

For a complete list of reports and documents pertaining to the IAEA and Iran, please see In Focus: IAEA and Iran.

Background documents:

1974: Iran Safeguards Agreement (formally titled Agreement between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency for the Application of Safeguards in Connection with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons)

1968: Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) (also available in pdf)

Websites:

Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Iranian Presidency (in Arabic and English)

Iran Nuclear Research Center (NRC)

Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations

777 UN Plaza - 6th Floor - New York, NY - 10017 - Ph: 212.682.1265 - Fax: 212.286.8211 - info@reachingcriticalwill.org
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