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Iran News Archives
Part of RCW's Nuclear
Iran? information and resource page
25 February 2008: The P5+1 (China, France,
Russia, the US, the UK, and Germany) discussed
the new International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran's
nuclear activities and the next steps to be taken.
22 February 2008: The text of the IAEA
Director General's report on Iran has been posted on the
ISIS website. See Mike Veiluva's comments on 22
February and 26
February at DisarmamentActivist.org.
14 February 2008: French President Nicolas
Sarkozy and other senior French officials met
in Paris with Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International
Atomic Energy Agency, in an effort to "smooth over"
differences between France and the Agency over Iran’s
nuclear program. A statement issued by the Élysée
Palace after Mr. Sarkozy’s meeting with Dr. ElBaradei
said that the French president encouraged him to investigate
Iran’s nuclear activities “at length and with
determination.” Three French officials familiar with
the meetings said that the conversations with Dr. ElBaradei
were cordial. ElBaradei reportedly reiterated that Iran would
never agree to suspend uranium enrichment and that the world
powers must negotiate with Iran with no preconditions.
The New York Times reported, "Much
to the frustration of his hosts, he had no specific proposal
on how such negotiations could take place, the officials said."
One should note that, as Michael Spies of the Lawyers'
Committee on Nuclear Policy says,
there have been various offers by Iran to
negotiate directly with the United States on a variety of
issues of mutual concern, and that the US government, after
years of dismissing such offers out of hand, instead opted
to engage in talks as part of the EU3+3 process, where it
put nothing more concrete than spare aircraft parts on the
table in exchange for verifiable suspension of Iran's nuclear
fuel cycle program. And of course, the onus is on the parties
to the dispute to set the time, place, and conditions for
negotiations, not Dr. ElBaradei.
13 February 2008: A European diplomat
told Reuters
that the UN Security Council will probably not vote on a third
sanctions resolution against Iran's nuclear programme until
after the next IAEA report is released. The unidentified diplomat
said "the vote is not specifically tied to the IAEA report,
but it just so happens that by the time we get around to voting
on it, it will most likely be after the report is out."
According to the article, South Africa has been's Security
Council delegation has been pressing the five permanent members
to wait for the report: "South Africa and other members
of the Non-Aligned Movement say the IAEA's investigation is
relevant and want the Council to wait until it has as much
information as possible."
A US official reportedly said the vote could
come any day: "There is nothing holding this up other
than trying to get agreement.... As soon as that happens,
we will vote." Other diplomats repotedly indicated that
"waiting for the IAEA report will help them by ensuring
they get a 'yes' vote from South Africa." Diplomats said
concerns from Libya and Viet Nam were also holding up the
vote. Apparently, Libya, which until recently was the target
of UN sanctions, opposes sanctions in general while Viet Nam
is unwilling to interfere in other countries' affairs.
In other news, Russian Foreign Minister Segei
Lavrov said
it would be better for Iran to "to refrain from actions
that raise tensions and create the impression Iran is ignoring
the international community," referring to Iran's continued
uranium enrichment and missile developments.
Meanwhile, unidentified diplomats told
the Associated Press that Iran has begun processing minute
quantities of gas in its new generation of advanced centrifuges.
One diplomat said Iran had set up only 10 of the machines
— far too few to make enriched uranium in the quantities
needed for an industrial-scale energy or weapons program.
One diplomat said that the centrifuges were set up on 20 January
and began processing minute amounts of the uranium gas soon
afterward to test the machines.
12 February 2008: David Albright and
Jacqueline Shire of the Institute
for Science and International Security wrote an article
containing some basic background information about the P-2
(IR-2) centrifuges and a brief history of Iran’s research
and development of them to date. They say that "Iran's
decision to move ahead with installation of modified P-2 centrifuges
at the Natanz pilot fuel enrichment plant ... appears to reflect
Iran’s commitment to expanding and improving its enrichment
capabilities beyond those of the P-1 centrifuge, of which
3,000 are currently operating at the larger Natanz fuel enrichment
plant."
Michael Spies of the Lawyers'
Committee on Nuclear Policy says the Iranian decision
isn't really news, but
What's notable is that they are doing this
at the same time the Security Council is talking about a
new sanctions package. This tends to reveal a little bit
of the Iranian calculus - that no conceivable sanctions
can impose a high enough cost to compel them to reconsider
their enrichment program. Of course, in the absence of any
package, such as that offered to North Korea, Iran also
has no incentive to discontinue the program either.
11 February 2008: The next IAEA report
on Iran's nuclear programme, expected to be published on or
around 20 February, may be delayed
by a few days because of "disagreements between ElBaradei
and his technical staff. ElBaradei is pushing for one thing,
while the people who went on a technical visit to Iran during
January disagree. It should now be published maybe one week
later, so in the last week of February." The report will
then be put to the IAEA Board of Govenors at its meeting on
3-7 March.
5 February 2008: Russian deputy foreign
minister Sergei Kislyak said
Iran should freeze enrichment activity until all of its nuclear
program's "complicated points have been worked out."
4 February 2008: Mohammed ElBaradei,
director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency,
said
Iran has made "good progress" in addressing outstanding
issues surrounding its nuclear program. ElBaradei said his
final report on the Iranian nuclear program will provide information
on the development of centrifuges and enrichment activity
at the Natanz nuclear facility. In an interview with Egyptian
TV, he warned
against military action against Iran, arguing a military strike
to settle the Iranian nuclear issue would complicate the situation
and send the Middle East region into a vicious cycle of violence.
ElBaradei is expected to issue a report to the IAEA Board
of Govenors around 20 February.
2 February 2008: Speaking on the sidelines
of the African Union summit in Ethiopia, Iran's Foreign Minister
Manouchehr Mottaki urged
the P5+1 to wait for a report from the IAEA before finalizing
the decision on new sanctions against Iran.
30 January 2008: US ambassador to the
UN, Zalmay Khalilzad, joined
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki and Iranian presidential
advisor Mojtaba Samare Hashemi in a debate during the World
Economic Forum in Switzerland. The appearance was unscheduled
- and unauthorized by the Bush administration. He reportedly
"broke rules that permit Bush administration officials
to discuss issues with Iranians only under limited circumstances
and with advance approval." In response to questions
about his participation in the debate, Khalilzad argued that
while "the panel was not instigated by the State Department....
It was a multilateral setting - in which we mad our points
and they made their points. There were no handshakes, no side
meetings. We do it in [the UN General Assembly] and other
multilateral settings. No change in policy." The debate
has been posted on YouTube.
28 January 2008: The UK, US, and France
began
a campaign to persuade the 10 non-permanent members of
the Security Council to agree to a third round of economic
and trade sanctions against Iran. According to the Financial
Times, "The western sponsors say they are seeking
unanimity in the 15-member Security Council in order to persuade
the Iranian public that the pursuit of an illicit nuclear
programme is not worth the economic cost in terms of trade
relations with the rest of the world."
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki
said
his country would show "serious and logical" reaction
if the UN Security Council adopts more sanctions against it.
The top Iranian diplomat urged that the UN Security Council
should wait until International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei presents his report to
the Board of Governors in February.
Also on 28 January, Iran received
the eighth and final shipment of nuclear fuel from Russia
for its Bushehr power plant. The total consignment was 82
tonnes.
25 January 2008: The P5+1, negotiating
a new Security Council sanctions resolution against Iran,
revealed
a package of measures described by a senior European diplomat
as "another turn of the screw". The proposed measures
would impose a travel ban and asset freeze on Iranians most
closely involved with the nuclear programme. Member states
would also be urged to monitor more closely the activities
of all Iranian banks, including Bank Melli and Bank Saderat.
Member states would be encouraged to inspect suspicious cargoes
to and from Iran and avoid granting export credits that could
be used to promote Iran's nuclear activities. It calls
"upon states to exercise vigilance in entering into new
commitments for public provided financial support for trade
with Iran, including the granting of export credits, guarantees
or insurance to their nationals involved in such trade."
It also directs IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei to
report within 90 days whether Iran has fully suspended all
sensitive nuclear fuel activities as demanded in previous
council resolutions. See more elements
of the resolution.
22 January 2008: The Foreign Ministers
of the six states involved in negotiating new UN Security
Council action against Iran are
are to meet in Berlin today, but agreed they have "some
way to go" before agreeing on a third sanctions resolution.
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the political
directors had been making progress, but noted there are "still
some gaps to close." Germany's Foreign Minister Frank-Walter
Steinmeier said he took Russia and China's involvement as
a positive sign, but also noted, "I can't promise we
will come out of this meeting with an agreement on how to
proceed in the U.N Security Council, that we will agree on
the text of a resolution and I can't tell you what new sanctions
will look like."
Iran received
the fifth shipment of nuclear fuel from Russia for its nuclear
powerplant at Bushehr. The consignment contained 11 tons of
enriched uranium, and the rest of the nuclear fuel will be
received in three separate shipments in coming week. Iran
has thus received 55 tons of fuel from Russia for Bushehr.
It needs a total of 82 tons for its primary stages of commissioning.
20 January 2008: Iran received the fourth
shipment of nuclear fuel from Russia for its nuclear powerplant
at Bushehr.
18 January 2008: Iran received the third
shipment of nuclear fuel from Russia for its nuclear powerplant
at Bushehr.
16 January 2008: A spokesman for the
German Foreign Ministry announced
that Germany believes a new UN resolution imposing sanctions
against Iran is necessary, and has invited the Foreign Ministers
of the five permament members of the Security Council to a
meeting next Tuesday in Berlin to discuss the matter. German
Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier plans to meet with
IAEA Director General ElBaradei tomorrow. The IAEA has confirmed
the meeting; a senior IAEA representative said ElBaradei was
likely to convey "his positive assessment" that
Iran was helping resolve lingering issues.
14 January 2008: During talks
between IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei and Iranian
government officials, Iran gave ElBaradei new information
on Iran's "new generation of centrifuges," and agreed
to answer questions about "secret nuclear activities"
within one month. The IAEA reported that "Agreement was
reached on the timeline for implementation of all remaining
verification issues specified in the work plan. According
to the agreed schedule, implementation ... should be completed
in the next four weeks." IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming
also said
the two sides discussed the importance of the implementation
of the Additional Protocol and other confidence-building measures
called for by the Security Council.
11 January 2008: IAEA Director General
Mohamed ElBaradei met
with Iranian Vice President Gholam Reza Aghazadeh (also head
of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization) to discuss how the IAEA
and the Iranian government can work together to accelerate
the pace of our cooperation to clarify all outstanding issues
before [the next IAEA] report in March." ElBaradei characterized
the session as a "frank and open exchange of views,"
explaining, "I asked Mr. Aghazadeh to give us maximum
transparency and provide assurances about all present nuclear
activities about Iran. ... My mission here is to overcome
the difficulties between IAEA and Iran." Tomorrow, ElBaradei
is scheduled to meet with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, top
nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
After the meeting, Aqazadeh said,
"We have entered a new phase of cooperation with the
IAEA in which grounds would be prepared for fully settling
all outstanding issues regarding our nuclear program."
9 January 2008: US President Bush, at
the start of his Middle East tour, denounced
Iran as a threat to world peace. Meanwhile, IAEA Director
General ElBaradei is headed to Iran to talk with President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki.
He is expected
to push for the resumption of UN inspections and for a rapid
conclusion of the investigation into Iran's past activities.
7 January 2008: A confrontation between
the United States and Iran occurred in the Strait of Hormuz,
wherein three US warships nearly opened fire on up to five
Iranian motor boats, which, according to the US, approached
them "in a threatening manner," but according to
Iran, simply asked the US ships to identify themselves. See
DisarmamentActivist.org's posts on 8
January and 10
January for a good overview of the incident, and analysis
of the Western and Iranian media reactions. See Kaveh L Afrasiabi's
article
from 15 January for some interesting legal perspectives
on the incident. And check out the videos of the incident
on the BBC website.
7 January 2008: IAEA Director General
Mohamed ElBaradei will
go to Iran at the end of the week for two days"with
a view of resolving all remaining outstanding issues and enabling
the agency to provide assurance about Iran's past and present
activities." An IAEA spokeswomen said ElBaradei would
meet some senior Iranian officials, but didn't give details.
28 December 2007: Russia delivered
the second batch of nuclear fuel to Iran for the Bushehr Nuclear
Power Plant. Its weight was equal to that of the first batch,
delivered on 17 December. A total of 82 tons of fuel is to
be delivered.
21 December 2007: US Permament Representative
to the UN Zalmay Khalilzad commented on Russia's supply of
reactor fuel to Iran in response to a reporter's question
of whether it will hamper movement towards further sanctions
on Iran:
Well, I have said, you have heard me before
that we have asked the Iranians to suspend their enrichment
program because once they are able to enrich uranium in
the name of their power reactor that they can enrich it
for weapon purposes too because the same technology that
enriches to - uranium to 5% can be used to enrich it to
70, 80, 90% which are usable and necessary and is two thirds
of the way for a weapons program. What’s important
about this issue is that if Iran suspended, we have said
we understand the need for the fuel and there has to be
a way to provide that fuel in a reliable way that doesn’t
yet contribute to proliferation. So the Russian offer makes
it unnecessary for Iran to have its own enrichment because
the Russians have said they will provide the fuel that is
needed for the power reactor. We were open minded in terms
of other alternatives to discuss post suspension but at
least the Russian offer undermines the logic that we need
to have enrichment because we need fuel for our reactor
and of course there is the back end which we will come to,
what happens with the spent fuel of the reactor is an issue
with regard to reprocessing the plutonium that will be in
the spent fuel. That’s an issue that’s also
critical for proliferation in terms of proliferation. Thank
you.
20 December 2007: A spokeswoman for the
Russian contractor Atomstroiexport announced
that it would take at least a year (until the end of 2008)
for the Bushehr power plant to become operational. Iranian
officials have previously thought Bushehr could be partially
operational within three months, and be completely online
in six to nine months.
18 December 2007: In his statement to
the Security Council, US Permament Representative to the UN
Zalmay Khalilzad said Iran must:
1) Suspend its proliferation sensitive nuclear
activities without delay, which would then allow negotiations
within the framework of the P5+1; and
2) Give the IAEA its full cooperation in implementing the
Work Plan.
The United States remains deeply troubled by Iran's noncompliance.
The P5+1 continue their consultations in capitals, and we
hope to have a text of a new sanctions resolution before
the full Council as soon as possible.
In closing, Mr. President, let me say a few words about
the recent announcement by the Russian Federation to send
Iran enriched uranium for use in the nuclear power plant
being constructed at Bushehr.
Resolution 1737, while prohibiting states from assisting
Iran with sensitive elements of the nuclear fuel cycle,
makes an exception for providing Iran with assistance and
fuel for light water reactors such as Bushehr. As President
Bush has noted, while he supports Russia's decision, Russia's
arrangement to supply nuclear fuel for the entire period
of Bushehr's operation demonstrates one thing: Iran does
not need to pursue uranium enrichment and other sensitive
aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle to have access to nuclear
power.
We have joined Russia and other members of the P5+1 in
offering Iran, if it complies with the requirements of the
Council, cooperation in the development of a civil nuclear
power program. This includes active international support
in building state-of-the art light water power reactors
and reliable access to fuel cycle, to nuclear fuel. If Iran
is, in fact, serious about using nuclear power to meet its
energy needs, the best way for it to proceed is to suspend
its proliferation sensitive nuclear activities and accept
the P5+1 offer. We await Iran's answer.
17 December 2007: Russia delivered
its first nuclear fuel shipment to the Iranian nuclear plant
at Bushehr. The Russian foreign ministry said in a statement
that Tehran had given assurances the 80 tonnes of fuel would
not be used for other purposes, and that the fuel was delivered
under the control and guarantees of the UN's nuclear watchdog,
the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has approved
the shipments.
Gholam Reza Aghazadeh, the Iranian vice-president and head
of Iran's nuclear programme, told Iran's state news agency
that the plant would begin generating electricity within the
next six months.
16 December 2007: Russia and Iran have
agreed to a timeframe to complete the Bushehr nuclear
power plant in southern Iran, according to Atomstroyexport,
the Russian contractor building the plant.
13 December 2007: China's Ambassador
to the UN, Wang Guangya, urged
for a "two-track approach in trying to resolve the dispute
with Iran over its nuclear program - a revitalized diplomatic
initiative along with a new U.N. resolution on sanctions."
Wang explained the NIE report "changed China's views
on a new sanction resolution." He also reported that
the political directors of the P5+1 agreed to either meet
or talk by telephone after the new year. However, US Ambassador
Khalilzad continued to insist "there was a proposal for
a new discussion among the political directors in the coming
days and the possibility of higher level talks at a donors
conference for Palestinians in Paris on Monday."
According to the AP, US officials in Washington
"said that a preliminary sanctions plan drafted by France
would punish the Quds Force, part of Iran's powerful Revolutionary
Guard Corps, for exporting banned weapons, and Bank Melli,
one of Iran's largest banks, which the United States included
in its own sweeping sanctions program in October."
12 December 2007: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad,
US Permanent Representative to the UN, explained to reporters
outside of the Security Council, "The NIE wasn’t
helpful, has not been helpful in speeding us to get to a resolution
– agreement on a resolution but we are talking with
Germany and other P5 members, it’s still discussions
that are being held at the political directors level and there
was, as you heard, a discussion yesterday and there will be
additional discussion. I don’t expect at the present
time for action to be transferred, the negotiations to be
transferred to me - or to us here in the UN Security Council
for some days still." When a reporter asked if the Security
Council will discuss the issue in December, Khalilzad said,
"That’s our expectations but it’s contingent
on agreement among the political directors and there is another
engagement planned – another conversation among the
political directors."
However, British Ambassador John Sawers said
he feels it is unlikely that the P5+1 government officials
will be able to reach enough agreement in their talks on a
new Iran sanctions resolution by the end of the year to start
taking action at the United Nations. Before the issue can
be taken up by the Security Council, political directors in
capitals negotiate the outline of the resolution; these directors
have not yet been able to agree on final elements of the resolution.
Sawers argued, "I think there's still wide differences
between, on the one hand, Britain, France, Germany and the
United States, on the other Russia and China."
12 December 2007: The chief American
official in talks on Iran’s nuclear program, Under Secretary
of State R. Nicholas Burns, has been in discussion with the
rest of the P5+1 about a third sanctions resolution against
Iran, though US administration officials have said a vote
on new sanctions, originally scheduled for this month, would
most likely be deferred until next year. The New York Times
reported
that one official said "the new sanctions might include
economic strictures and a ban on foreign travel by senior
Iranian officials involved in the nuclear program or suspected
of supporting terrorism. Such sanctions would be somewhat
similar to those the United States unilaterally imposed on
the Quds division of Iran’s Republican Guard Corps,
although apparently they would not go nearly as far."
Meanwhile, Scott McCormack, the State Department's spokesperson,
said the administration would like to have a final Security
Council resolution that can be voted on in the coming weeks,
adding, "what is very interesting about this is that
we’re not talking about whether or not there’s
going to be a resolution, but we’re talking about what
are the elements to a new Security Council resolution."
8 December 2007: Gulf Arab countries
vocally
disagreed with Defense Secretary Robert Gates on US policies
toward Iran and Israel. During his speech at a regional security
conference in Bahrain, Gates stressed the danger of Iran's
nuclear program and urged the Gulf states to force Tehran
to stop uranium enrichment. Several Gulf state delegates said
the US was hypocritical for supporting Israeli nuclear weapons,
and questioned Washington's refusal to meet with Iran to discuss
the Islamic state's nuclear activities. Bahraini Minister
of Labor Majeed al-Alawi asked whether Gates thought that
Israeli nuclear weapons are a threat to the region. Gates
said no - and that he does not perceive that as being a double-standard.
6 December 2007: The Tehran Times pointed
out several problems with the NIE report released on 3
December, arguing that despite positive responses by some
Iranian officials, the report is actually not something to
celebrate:
While the nuclear watchdog states that it
has not observed any non-peaceful nuclear activities, the
U.S. intelligence agencies have evaluated Iran’s nuclear
program to be of a military nature, so that, unlike a technical
approach, this political evaluation would influence public
opinion.
[The report states:] “The halt, and Tehran’s
announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium
enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was
directed primarily in response to increasing international
scrutiny and pressure…”
In this way they are trying to justify their decision to
pressure Iran and implying that the country is not committed
to the agreements.
[The report states:] “Until fall 2003, Iranian military
entities were working under government direction to develop
nuclear weapons.”
This big lie is not mentioned in any of the IAEA reports
and is only an allegation made by the United States.
[The report states:] “Since fall 2003, Iran has been
conducting research and development projects with commercial
and conventional military applications”; “Iran’s
civilian uranium enrichment program is continuing”;
“Iran will not be technically capable of producing
and reprocessing enough plutonium for a weapon before about
2015”; and “Iran has the scientific, technical
and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons
if it decides to do so.”
These sentences suggest that the pressure that was put
on Iran, under the leadership of the U.S. government, has
been successful in halting the country’s efforts to
produce nuclear weapons and thus should be continued.
The article goes on to argue, "China, Russia, and even
other permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany
have made it very clear to the United States that they adamantly
believe that only diplomatic methods should be used in the
nuclear standoff. However, it is also important to examine
their definition of diplomacy. We suppose that diplomacy means
interaction through dialogue in order to reach an understanding,
but in the conception of diplomacy of some members of the
5+1 group, any tool can be utilized to exert pressure except
Article 42 of the United Nations Charter and the military
option."
5 December 2007: Recovering from the
intelligence report that seemed to undermine the US administration's
push for further sanctions against Iran, and undeterred in
its push to escalate international pressure on Iran, President
Bush said
the report shows Iran still has many questions to answer about
its past nuclear work, arguing that Iran had to come clean
on the work it had done on its nuclear program prior to 2003
and suspend uranium enrichment, or risk international isolation.
This statement avoids admitting that the IAEA and Iran have
been correctly asserting that Iran has no nuclear weapons
programme, and disregards the work plan developed by the IAEA
and Iran to settle all outstanding issues related to the IAEA
investigation into Iran's past nuclear activities. Furthermore,
as Michael Spies of the Lawyers'
Committee on Nuclear Policy adds, it "deliberately
distorts the historical-political context and makes clear
that Iran's nuclear programme is not the issue that is driving
[the US'] policies" toward Iran.
However, French Ambassador Jean-Maurice Ripert
indicated
that the Security Council would be moving forward with another
set of sanctions against Iran, saying "there was 'growing
consensus' among world powers including China and Russia on
moving talks on Iran's nuclear program to New York,"
because "Iran was still in defiance of two Security Council
resolutions demanding it halt uranium enrichment." The
Reuters article further points out that "Washington has
said it will continue pressing for a third round of sanctions
unless Iran halts uranium enrichment."
Al Jazeera, on the other hand, argued
that now that the NIE report has been released, there will
be international pressure against a pre-emptive strike and
opposition in the Security Council against further sanctions.
Marwan Bishara, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst, also
believes the report "might pave the way to bilateral
negotiations between the US and Iran without stiff preconditions
in order to relax the tensions in the Gulf with the participation
of Iran's Arab neighbours, as well as its European allies,"
and that "Washington will find it ever more necessary
and ever more enticing to talk to Iran about a 'helpful' and
perhaps beneficial role for itself and Iraq in the Gulf."
4 December 2007: Al
Jazeera noted
that despite the report, the White House has urged global
powers to "turn up the pressure" on Iran. Stephen
Hadley, the national security adviser, argued, "The intelligence
... tells us that the risk of Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon
remains a very serious problem," and insisted, "The
bottom line is this: for that strategy to succeed, the international
community has to turn up the pressure on Iran - with diplomatic
isolation, United Nations sanctions, and with other financial
pressure - and Iran has to decide it wants to negotiate a
solution." Al Jazeera also noted that the UK government
seems to favour "increasing the pressure on Iran over
its nuclear programme despite the latest NIE report,"
quoting a British foreign ministry spokesperson saying, "The
report's conclusions justify the action already taken by the
international community to get to the bottom of Iran's nuclear
programme and to increase pressure on the regime to stop its
enrichment and reprocessing activities." Meanwhile, US
President Bush said
the report was a "warning signal" and his view that
a nuclear Iran would be a danger "hasn't changed,"
adding: "Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous and Iran
will be dangerous if they have the know-how to make a nuclear
weapon."
The report has further confused
EU officials, who are "struggling to understand why the
United States chose to issue the report just two days after
the six powers involved in negotiating with Iran — the
United States, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany
— had decided to press ahead with a new Security Council
resolution." One diplomat reportedly said, “Officially,
we will study the document carefully; unofficially, our efforts
to build up momentum for another resolution are gone.”
Meanwhile, Vitaly Churkin, the Russian ambassador to the United
Nations, praised the report, arguing, “We have always
been saying there is no proof they are pursuing nuclear weapons.”
He explained he wasn't sure what impact the report would have
on the new initiative for more sanctions. A senior official
at the IAEA said, “Despite repeated smear campaigns,
the I.A.E.A. has stood its ground and concluded time and again
that since 2002 there was no evidence of an undeclared nuclear
weapons program in Iran,” adding that “[i]t also
validates the assessment of the director general that what
the I.A.E.A. inspectors have seen in Iran represented no imminent
danger.”
Meanwhile, in remarks to reporters outside the
Security Council, US Permanent Representative to the UN, Ambassador
Zalmay Khalilzad, said, "the NIE says that there was
a covert military dedicated nuclear weapons program."
However, this assertion of the report should
not be accepted without investigation.As Michael Spies of
the Lawyers'
Committee on Nuclear Policy points out, "Scant evidence
exists in the public domain to back up the administration's
assertion that Iran had a nuclear weapons program." Iran's
nuclear-related activities prior to 2003 do not indisputably
indicate a "covert military dedicated nuclear weapons
program". For example, Spies says, "Iranian opposition
groups have made a number of claims, mostly discredited, regarding
clandestine military nuclear sites in Iran, including the
Parchin Military Complex and the Lavizan-Shian Technical Research
Center. IAEA samples of the soil found no evidence of nuclear
materials at either site, consistent with Iran's declarations."
Furthermore, "[i]n 2006, the IAEA continued to investigate
the import of dual use equipment by PHRC [Physics Research
Center, located at the Lavizan-Shian site], which could be
used in uranium enrichment and conversion activities. The
IAEA detected particles of natural and highly enriched uranium
on some equipment and materials related to the center,"
not to military activities. In regards to the 15-page document
given to Iran by the A.Q. Khan network that described "the
procedures for the reduction of UF6 to uranium metal in small
quantities, and for the casting of enriched and depleted uranium
metal into hemispheres, related to fabrication of nuclear
weapons components," Iran turned this document over to
the IAEA in 2006. Spies explains, the IAEA "noted the
document did not contain specification or dimensions for machined
components. Iran claimed the document was provided at the
initiative of the network. The IAEA noted that Iran had not
made use of the procedures described in the document."
Spies further argues, "The important question
that doesn't get asked isn't so much whether Iran had
a nuclear weapon program but what does the NIE mean
by Iran had a nuclear weapons program. Obviously we aren't
taking about the Manhattan project here. The bottom line is
that there's no evidence in the public domain to suggest much
beyond paper studies in Iran related to possible weaponization
of nuclear materials."
Ambassador Khalilzad went on to argue that the NIE report
says Iran stopped its "covert military dedicated nuclear
weapons program" in 2003 "because of international
pressure, because of revelations about the program that did
not come as a result of Iran producing that information, but
otherwise in the context of U.S. activities in the region,
including developments in Iraq at that time."
However, sanctions were not applied against
Iran in 2003. The US pushed for the IAEA to report Iran to
the UN Security Council in 2003, but instead, three EU states
- France, Germany, and the UK - offered Iran technical cooperation
with its nuclear program in exchange for full transparency.
Talks between Iran and the EU3 and the IAEA continued on-and-off
August 2005; the matter was not referred to the Security Council
until February 2006.
Mike Veiluva writing for DisarmamentActivist.org
argues, "while sanctions were not responsible for terminating
Iran’s alleged weapons research activities, they certainly
could induce the Iranian government to reconsider its suspension.
We already have the example of 2006 when the US push for new
sanctions drove Iran to terminate the Paris Agreement and
resume uranium enrichment."
3 December 2007: A new National
Intelligence Estimate, representing the consensus view
of all 16 US spy agencies, says
that Iran is not currently seeking nuclear weapons, nor will
it be capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium
for a nuclear weapon until at least 2010. The report "concludes
that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that
the program remains on hold, contradicting an assessment two
years ago that Tehran was working inexorably toward building
a bomb." Mainstream media has either presented this report
as undermining neoconservative arguments for war with Iran,
or, as Fox News spun
it, "The intelligence community has high confidence
that Iran had a covert nuclear weapons program that it never
acknowledged and continues to deny, National Security Adviser
Stephen Hadley said Monday, but the program is currently halted
although perhaps not indefinitely." Some also insinuated
or pointed out that the report's contradictions to the 2005
NIE report, as well as the NIE's errors about Iraq's posession
of WMD, render this new report meaningless. Michael Spies
of the Lawyers'
Committee on Nuclear Policy argues the report adds nothing
new or substantive to the debate.
30 November 2007: EU foreign policy chief
Javier Solana said
he is disappointed after talks with Iran on its nuclear programme,
but top Iranian nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said the discussions
were positive and more would be held. Solana was reportedly
"looking for signs that the Iranians were prepared to
suspend uranium enrichment work," while Jalili argued
"it was unacceptable to pressure Iran into abandoning
uranium enrichment, as it was allowed to do so under the nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty."
25 November 2007: Iran's Foreign Ministry
spokesman reported
that Iran is working on the "completion of a new idea"
for settling the dispute over its nuclear programme. "The
new idea is currently discussed and to be completed and presented
at the next round of talks with (European Union foreign policy
chief Javier) Solana," Mohammad-Ali Hosseini told reporters
at a press conference. He did not disclose the contents of
the new idea, but confirmed that chief nuclear negotiator
Saeid Jalili would meet Solana in London on November 30.
25 November 2007: Iran's Foreign Ministry
spokesman, Mohammad-Ali Hosseini, said
Iranian officials will resume talks with their counterparts
from the UN nuclear watchdog over outstanding issues on Iran's
peaceful nuclear activities on December 11. The remaining
issues include the Polonium 210, source of the contamination,
and Gachin mine.
24 November 2007: The European Union's
foreign policy chief Javier Solana suggested
the discussion of establishing international enrichment centres
under multilateral supervision should be enhanced as an effort
to defuse tensions over Iran's nuclear enrichment programme.
However, Iran's response to previous suggestions of relying
on an international fuel supply rather than a domestic supply
has not been favourable. Iranian media said on Wednesday Solana
would meet Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili in
London on 30 November. Solana said he would "probably"
meet Jalili on that date.
22 November 2007: Disregarding the IAEA
Director General's recent report,
the US, the UK, France, and Germany told
the IAEA Board of Governors that "a wait-and-see approach
is not an option." They argued that Iran had not done
enough to win their trust, and the UN should now consider
tougher sanctions: "We recognize Iran has taken some
steps in the right direction but we are disappointed that
cooperation is of a partial and reactive nature ... all in
all, the results are not encouraging." US envoy Gregory
Schulte agreed, saying, "Iran's consistent policy of
selective cooperation and delay tactics suggest that Iran
means only to distract the world" from their nuclear
weapon ambitions. Meanwhile, Russia and China agree Iran's
cooperation with the IAEA is a positive step forward, and
neither seems ready to intensify sanctions. The Non-Aligned
Movement emphasized Iran's substantive cooperation, and warned
against "undue interference" with the process.
21 November 2007: Iran's deputy chief
nuclear negotiator Javad Vaeidi announced
that preliminary nuclear talks between Iran and the European
Union are to be held "within the next few days,"
after the initial schedule had to be postponed for "technical
reasons." Vaeidi said that after technical evaluation
of the Iranian nuclear programme by the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA), Tehran was also ready to discuss with
the EU the political aspects of the issue.
19 November 2007: UN Ambassador Wang
Guangya of China said
his government is ready for six-nation talks to begin in early
December to try to resolve the dispute over Iran's nuclear
programme, but expressed caution about the possibility of
new sanctions. He said the United States "should not
forget" that the International Atomic Energy Agency is
the UN nuclear "watchdog," and when the six nations
decided on the two sanctions resolutions adopted by the UN
Security Council, "it [was] to reinforce the role of
IAEA." Ambassador Wang also denied that the cancellation
of its attendance at the most recent P5+1 meeting was a move
to block further sanctions, arguing that the Chinese delegation
faced scheduling problems.
19 November 2007: Iranian lawyer and
Nobel laureate Shirin Ebadi called
on Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program, arguing
it is not worth war. She explained, "Using nuclear energy
is every nation's right, but we have obvious other rights
including security, peace and welfare." She also urged
the United States to work within international law when addressing
the Iranian nuclear programme: "What we want is that
the two sides should respect international law," Ebadi
said during her interview with Radio Farda. "The United
States cannot have the right to deal with Iran outside the
framework of international law, and Iran cannot build a wall
around itself and say, ‘I have nothing to do with international
law,’ and pay no attention to Security Council resolutions."
15 November 2007: The IAEA Director General
released a new report on the
implementation of the NPT Safeguards
Agreement and relevant Security Council provisions in Iran.
Media spin on the issue undermines several key points of the
report. As noted by Michael Spies of the Lawyers'
Committee on Nuclear Policy, "the charge
that Iran's cooperation has been reactive rather than proactive
could be interpreted as a criticism of the IAEA itself, which
after all agreed to the formula contained in the work plan.
In addition, the IAEA's 'diminishing'
knowledge of Iran's nuclear program requires a lot of
qualification - under the Safeguards, the IAEA is obligated
only to verify that information declared to it by governments
matches physical inventories. So in normal circumstances when
safeguards are applied, the IAEA doesn't compile "knowledge"
about a state's nuclear program - it makes findings regarding
the accuracy of a state's declarations. Of course, these two
points are easily taken out of context in order to show Iran
has not been cooperating, in spite of the very clear conclusion
of the report to the contrary." He further points out
several items in the report worth noting, including "the
expanded chronology of Iran's acquisition of nuclear fuel
cycle technology, placing the development of Iran's nuclear
program in the context of the program started by the Shah,"
and, more importantly, "the revised history of the 1987
offer from the Khan network and the civilian origin of the
decision to pursue uranium enrichment in paras 10 and 11 (emphasis
mine):
10. According to Iran, the decision to acquire centrifuge
technology was taken by the President of the AEOI and endorsed
by the Prime Minister of Iran. In response to its enquiries
about possible additional documentation relevant to the
1987 offer, the Agency was provided on 8 November 2007 with
a copy of a confidential communication from the President
of the AEOI to the Prime Minister, dated 28 February 1987,
which also carried the Prime Minister's endorsement, dated
5 March 1987. In his communication, the AEOI President indicated
that the activities "should be treated fully confidentially."
In response to the Agency's enquiry as to whether there
was any military involvement in the programme, Iran has
stated that no institution other than the AEOI was involved
in the decision-making process or in the implementation
of the centrifuge enrichment programme.
11. Based on interviews with available Iranian officials
and members of the supply network, limited documentation
provided by Iran and procurement information collected through
the Agency's independent investigations, the Agency has
concluded that Iran's statements are consistent with other
information available to the Agency concerning Iran's acquisition
of declared P-1 centrifuge enrichment technology in 1987.
Also important, Iran's explanation for the development (or
lack thereof) of the P-2 centrifuge also seems to check out,
and as always, 'The Agency has been able to verify the non-diversion
of declared nuclear material in Iran.'"
The P5+1 have been waiting for the release of this report,
the first one since the IAEA and Iran developed a work
plan to settle their outstanding issues, to decide whether
or not to press further sanctions against Iran (see 21
August entry for more details).
After the release of the report, Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad,
US Permanent Representative to the UN, argued that "it
is clear that Iran has not fully cooperated," and pressed
for "another resolution in the Security Council under
Chapter 7 to impose additional sanctions on Iran." He
further said, "only a strong resolution with new and
biting sanctions will give diplomacy a chance to succeed ...
I think it’s in everyone’s interest for this world
defining issue to be resolved diplomatically and for diplomacy
to work, for diplomacy to succeed it needs widely supported
broad and biting sanctions to effect the calculations of the
regime in Iran." He also hinted that China's "dragging
feet" on the issue would be responsible for the failure
of diplomacy "by not cooperating with the effort at additional
sanctions."
Khalilzad also insisted this is one of the most important
issues the international community faces, "because Iran
is seeking regional hegemony, because Iran has ties terrorist
organizations, because Iran’s support for insurgent
groups in Iraq and in Afghanistan, because of the rhetoric
of the Iranian leaders. Given all that, it is a defining issue
and therefore the international community as a state, the
international community as a whole as a state in doing all
that we can diplomatically to prevent Iran from acquiring
a nuclear weapons capability."
October 2007: The "Iran issue" at the General
Assembly First Committee on Disarmament and International
Security
Extracted from the Nuclear Proliferation reports written
by Michael Spies of the Lawyers'
Committee on Nuclear Policy in the First Committee Monitor:
Week 1: 8-12 October 2007
Contrary to exhortations of unity of the international community
on the issue of Iran’s nuclear programme, the discussion
in the General Debate revealed a high degree of divergence.
Divergences were readily apparent in the approach of the
P5 on the issue of Iran, despite the 28 September P5+2
statement in which the major powers agreed to seek a third
sanctions resolution in the UN Security Council unless reports
from the IAEA and the EU High Representative show progress
in November. The United
States again adopted the hardest line against Iran and
called outright for the UN Security Council to “move
forward as soon as possible to adopt a third resolution under
Chapter VII imposing additional sanctions measures.”
Although the EU's
delegation called upon Iran to “respond positively
and swiftly to the demands of the international community
… in particular by suspending its enrichment related
and reprocessing activities,” and endorsed the 28 September
P5+2 statement, it more positively expressed hope “that
the discussions between the IAEA and Iran on outstanding issues
will, at least by November, meet the targets laid down by
the 'work plan'.” The EU made no reference to an additional
sanctions resolution, however, it expressed “resolve
not to allow Iran to acquire military nuclear capabilities
and to see to all consequences of its nuclear programme, in
terms of proliferation, resolved,” without further specification
as to what such “resolution” might entail.
The Russian
Federation and China's
delegations both placed emphasis on diplomatic and political
solutions to addressing the Iran nuclear situation, without
reference to the imposition of additional sanctions or the
28 September P5+2 statement, perhaps an indication of lukewarm
support for continued escalation of the situation. Russia's
Ambassador Antonov called for a “comprehensive approach
… to the situation around the Iranian nuclear program.”
He further called for a “comprehensive political and
diplomatic solution” and “for intensifying contacts
between the Six Parties and Iran in order to elaborate the
models that would allow to launch such purpose-oriented full-scale
negotiations process.” China's Ambassador Cheng Jingye
implored all parties to “show flexibility, exercise
patience and stick to the course of peaceful resolution in
seeking a comprehensive, long-term and appropriate solution”
to the Iran situation.
Other Western delegations that spoke out on Iran tended to
take an approach closer to that of the EU. Canada
and New
Zealand emphasized a need for Iran to comply fully with
UN Security Council resolutions 1737
(2006) and 1747
(2007), a reference to Iran’s refusal to suspend
its uranium enrichment programme. Delegations affiliated with
the Non-Aligned
Movement, of which Iran is a member, universally adopted
a softer tone, welcoming the agreement between Iran and the
IAEA to resolve outstanding issues. Additionally, without
direct reference to Iran, Non-Aligned delegates generally
called for balanced and comprehensive pursuit of non-proliferation
objectives and reaffirmed the right expressed in Article IV
of the NPT to peaceful development and use of nuclear energy.
Ambassador Aziz of Egypt
observed the international community was witnessing “efforts
aimed at preventing the non-nuclear-weapon-States from their
inalienable right in the peaceful applications of nuclear
technology.” Indonesia’s
Ambassador Asmady stated, “We believe that the international
community should not be skeptical of the activities of certain
states—which are parties—in building peaceful
nuclear programs as long as they will not be diverted into
military purposes.”
Week 2: 15-19 October 2007
The dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme was again
the near-exclusive focus of discussion over matters concerning
nuclear proliferation in the second week of First Committee.
Despite the large amount of floor time devoted to the issue,
delegations generally failed to add any points of substance
to the discussion beyond those covered already in the General
Debate (see Nuclear Proliferation week one). In the Thematic
Debate, the European
Union statement did little more than expand on its position
on Iran incorporated in its general statement. Japan
and Australia
both expressed approval of the work plan between Iran and
the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA) to resolve outstanding issues, but
also called on Iran to fully comply with relevant IAEA Board
and UN Security Council resolutions without delay, including
the suspension of uranium enrichment.
Given the active engagement and ownership of this issue by
some major powers, who are also permanent members of the Security
Council, the role of the General Assembly on this matter is
certain to remain limited to repeated reassertion of national
positions in prepared remarks during the general and themed
discussions. The only, very minor, exception to this might
be if some states continue to raise objections to the annual
resolution sponsored by the League of Arab States, A/C.1/62/L.2,
entitled “The risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle
East.” Despite its title the resolution exclusively
singles out Israel without reference to other concerns relevant
to nuclear proliferation in the Middle East (i.e. Iran), which
has led some delegations to question its balance.
First Committee also heard both the Iranian and Israeli viewpoints
on this issue in their general remarks. Reiterating familiar
rhetorical points, Iranian
Ambassador Khazaee defended Iran’s nuclear programme
as peaceful, touted the 21 August work plan to resolve all
outstanding issues with the IAEA, which the ambassador noted
had been well received by the international community, and
denounced UN Security Council resolutions adopted on the nuclear
issue as “unwarranted … unlawful, unnecessary
and unjustifiable.” Israeli
Ambassador Ziv, also delivering general remarks from the viewpoint
of her country’s unique perspective on matters of global
security, urged states to regard Iran “as a threat well
beyond the geographical limits of the Middle East” and
also as “a threat not just to the regional stability
but also to the global strategic situation.” Ambassador
Ziv’s statements were in part based on her argument
that weapons of mass destruction “in the hands of reckless
and irresponsible actors” is singularly the problem.
These hyperbolic statements are particularly notable because
Israel possesses the only nuclear arsenal in the region. Such
positions were flatly rejected by the Hans Blix-led Weapons
of Mass Destruction Commission, which pointedly discarded
the notion that nuclear weapons in the hands of some are safe,
but in the hands of others place the world in mortal jeopardy.
Taking a large step back from the narrow and overtly self-interested
views expressed by the regional antagonists, Ambassador Khan
of Pakistan
observed that in the context of Iran’s nuclear programme,
“resort[ing] to further coercion or worse, the use of
force, will be counter-productive and lead to further and
grave instability and insecurity in the Middle East and beyond.
It could also jeopardize the bright economic prospects of
the entire region.” He emphasized the need to “safeguard
the security and independence” of all states in the
region, noting that “[a]symmetry, imbalance and discrimination
will ultimately propel proliferation of weapons of mass destruction
in this region,” rather than facilitating the goal of
a nuclear weapon free zone in the Middle East.
24 September 2007: In an interview
with 60 Minutes, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,
who is in New York to address the UN General Assembly
on Tuesday, denied
Iran has an interest in acquiring a nuclear weapon. "If
it (a nuclear bomb) was useful, it would have prevented the
downfall of the Soviet Union," he said. "If it was
useful, it would resolved the problem the Americans have in
Iraq. The time of the bomb is passed."
20 September 2007: The Middle
Powers Initiative issued an appeal
for a diplomatic and peaceful resolution of the Iran crisis.
In a statement widely released to governments around the world,
MPI appealed for their help in influencing the United States
not to launch a military attack on Iran.
14 September 2007: Germany
suggested a delay in pressing for new sanctions against Iran,
announced foreign ministry spokes-person
Martin Jaeger at a news conference. Although Jaeger stated,
"Germany is ready, if necessary, to take the necessary
steps against Iran," he added, "As a member of the
IAEA, we are also dealing with the so-called open questions
and giving Iran a chance to recover the international community's
lost confidence in its nuclear program… If Iran is ready
to do this ... then I think we can spare ourselves future
sanctions debates." Germany would now like to await the
release of a regular IAEA report on Iran in November, which
would provide an update on the progress of the work plan,
before proceeding with any further discussion of sanctions.
The announcement represented a shift in the unity of the EU-3
as France and the UK reportedly remain ready to push for new
sanctions.
13 September 2007: The Isreali
Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, said that the UN Security
Council should impose tougher sanctions against Iran, and
that private businesses should stop doing businesss with Tehran
despite financial losses that might result. US diplomats are
expected to press for stronger sanctions at meetings to be
held next week.
12 September 2007: Iran will
not stop uranium enrichment, chief nuclear negotiator
Ali Larijani said on Wednesday, despite a call by the European
Union and U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to halt sensitive
nuclear work. The European Union said earlier that the failure
to include a provision for Iran to halt uranium enrichment
in a transparency deal Tehran agreed in August with the IAEA
was unacceptable.
12 September 2007: Iran warned
that a new round of UN sanctions could
"destroy" its willingness to cooperate with
investigations into its past nuclear activities. The US said
it would still push for penalties if Iran did not suspend
its uranium enrichment program that at projected rates could
produce enough material for a bomb in one year.
11 September 2007: The Non-Aligned Movement
(NAM) strongly
backed the IAEA-Iran work plan at an IAEA Board of Govenors
meeting, countering criticism of the deal by Western states.
Ambassador Norma Goicochea Estenoz of Cuba, speaking on behalf
of NAM, said the bloc "strongly rejects any undue pressure
or interference in the agency's activities ... which could
jeopardize its efficiency and credibility," in a diplomatic
rebuke to Western states that have expressed skepticism about
the work plan. NAM further stated it "believes this work
plan is a significant step forward, as (ElBaradei) said himself,"
further adding that "NAM believes it will facilitate
negotiations between Iran and other concerned parties toward
a peaceful settlement of Iran's nuclear issues. NAM also expects
all concerned parties to avoid taking any measures which put
at risk the recent constructive process between Iran and the
Agency." The EU statement to the Board "took note"
of the work plan, but stopped short of endorsing it or expressing
approval. Diplomats reported that IAEA Director General Mohamed
ElBaradei walked out of the meeting following the EU statement.
10 September 2007: UN Secretary
General Ban Ki-moon said that Iran must cooperate with all
UN
Security Council demands including the suspension of uranium
enrichment. "In addition to what IAEA has been negotiating
and discussing with the Iranian government, the Iranian government
should fully comply with the Security Council resolutions
-- that is the core," Ban said.
4 September 2007: Iranian President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's statement that Iran
has 3,000 centrifuges running is not backed up by evidence,
diplomats familiar with U.N. inspections said. 2,000 have
been operating, but well below capacity, with another several
hundred in various stages of installation and testing.
30 August 2007: IAEA Deputy Director
general of safeguards Olli Heinonen underlined
the importance of the work plan, recently agreed to between
Iran and the IAEA "to resolve the outstanding issues
that triggered all the Security Council procedures sometime
ago." He emphasized, "When you read the plan you
see this is not an open-ended timeline: there are certain
linkages in this approach, but it's important that it is not
open-ended…. The key now is that Iran adheres to this
timeline, provides us with the information that we need and
access to the information." He further noted that "All
these measures which you see there for resolving our outstanding
issues go beyond the requirements of the Additional Protocol."
Regarding concerns that Iran was manipulating the IAEA investigation
and that the deal rules out further inquiries, Heinonen stated,
"If the answers are not satisfactory, we are making new
questions until we are satisfied with the answers and we can
conclude technically that the matter is resolved—it
is for us to judge when we think we have enough information.
Once the matter is resolved, then the file is closed."
30 August 2007: The IAEA Director General
described the 21 August work plan as a significant step forward,
in a report
on the implementation of safeguards in Iran submitted to the
IAEA Board. The report also indicated that "Iran
has not suspended its enrichment related activities"
and "is also continuing with its construction of the
IR-40 reactor and operation of the Heavy Water Production
Plant" contrary to the decisions of the UN Security Council.
As of 19 August, Iran was simultaneously operating 12 164-machine
cascades with uranium feedstock at its Fuel Enrichment Plant,
with one cascade operating without uranium, one operating
under vacuum, and two more under construction. Despite Iran's
claims that it has enriched up to 4.8 percent U-235, the IAEA
reported a maximum enrichment level of 3.7%. The IAEA noted,
"Since February 2007, Iran has fed approximately 690
kg of UF6 into the cascades at the Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP),
which is well below the expected quantity for a facility of
this design."
22 August 2007: The US ambassador to
the IAEA accused
Iran of manipulating the IAEA in response to the 21 August
work plan for resolving outstanding issues related to Iran's
past nuclear activities. The US ambassador, Gregory Schulte,
described the package as containing "real limitations,"
further stating that "Cooperation that is partial, conditional,
and only promised in the future is not enough. Cooperation
that allows Iran to proceed developing the capacity to build
nuclear weapons is also not enough. If Iran's leaders truly
want the world's trust, they would stop trying to manipulate
the IAEA, start to cooperate fully and unconditionally, and
suspend activities of concern."
21 August 2007: The
IAEA and Iran finalized a work plan to resolve all outstanding
issues, after further meetings between Iranian and IAEA officials
in Vienna on 24 July and in Tehran 20-21 August. The document
entitled, "Understandings
of The Islamic Republic of Iran and the IAEA on the Modalities
of Resolution of the Outstanding Issues," was prepared
following a series of discussions in Tehran by IAEA and Iranian
officials starting on 12 July and contains a schedule for
resolving all outstanding issues related to the IAEA investigation
into Iran's past nuclear activities. According to the document,
the issue of Iran's past plutonium experiments was satisfactorily
resolved on 20 August. The document further states Iran's
understanding that once all presently identified issues have
been resolved, there will be no further remaining issues or
ambiguities pertaining to Iran's nuclear program. Under the
plan, the IAEA will provide its remaining questions to Iran
regarding the origin of the P-1 and P-2 centrifuge programs
by 31 August, and schedules a series of meetings intended
to close the matter by November 2007. Two weeks following
the closure of the P-1 and P-2 centrifuge issue, Iran and
the IAEA will work to resolve the remaining uranium contamination
issues. Iran agreed on 12 July 2007 to cooperation with the
IAEA in examination of a document found in Iran describing
the casting of uranium metal into hemispheric shapes. Two
weeks following the resolution of the uranium metal and contamination
issues, Iran agreed to provide explanation to the IAEA's questions
regarding Iran's PO-210 experiments, to be provided in writing
to Iran by 15 September 2007. The IAEA agreed to provide Iran
will all documentation it possesses pertaining to the alleged
Green Salt Project, the existence of which Iran denies, which
involves alleged studies pertaining to conversion of uranium
to UF4, high explosives, and missile reentry vehicles. Iran
agreed to review this evidence as a sign of cooperation. Diplomats
from Western states criticized the deal for failing to secure
Iran's adherence to the Additional Protocol and as for seemingly
precluding the IAEA from making further inquiries to Iran
on nuclear issues.
20 August 2007: IAEA and Iranian officials
met in Tehran to discuss the 12 July work plan to resolve
all out-standing issues, and "which includes understandings
between the Secretariat and Iran on the modalities, procedures
and timelines for resolving these matters."
6 August 2007: IAEA officials,
led by Michiro
Hosaya, arrived in Iran today, and will meet with a group
headed by Mohammad Saeedi, deputy head of Iran's atomic energy
organization. Plans for future inspections of Iran's uranium
enrichment facilities at Natanz will be discussed.
30 July 2007: International
Atomic Energy Agency inspectors visited
the heavy water nuclear reactor under construction at Arak
for a routine design information verification inspection.
The IAEA noted that construction of the reactor was ongoing.
Additionally, the IAEA further noted that according to satellite
imagery, operation of the adjacent heavy water plant was also
ongoing. It is the first such visit since Iran in April blocked
access to the plant. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear negotiator
Ali Larijani and European Union negotiator Javier Solana are
to continue talks on Iran's nuclear program this week.
25 July 2007: Iran and the
IAEA wrapped
up talks and agreed to meet again on August 20th in Tehran.
In the meantime, an IAEA team will head to Tehran next week
to inspect the Iranian heavy water reactor in the city of
Arak. In addition, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki
said
Iranian officials would meet with representative of the Group
5+1 in the near future after fixing an exact date for the
event.
24 July 2007: IAEA and Iranian
officials met to further discuss the work plan for resolving
all outstanding issues. IAEA Deputy Director General for Safeguards
Olli Heinonen and Iran's Undersecretary of the Supreme National
Security Council for International Affairs, Javad Vaeedi,
met in Vienna to follow up on the 12 July meeting in which
both sides agreed to a draft
plan to resolve all outstanding issues.
23 July 2007:
It was reported
that on Tuesday, July 24th, Iran and the IAEA would hold a
second round of talks in Vienna on Iran’s nuclear program. Also
on Tuesday, Iran is expected
to engage in bilateral meetings with the United States, in
Baghdad. The topic of the Baghdad meetings is expected
to be the situation in Iraq, not Iran’s nuclear program.
23 July 2007: British
Prime Minister Gordon Brown said
he would not rule out military action against Iran, but believed
a policy of sanctions could still persuade Tehran to drop
its disputed nuclear program.
22 July 2007: British
Prime Minister Gordon Brown is expected to meet with President
Bush and discuss the “looming crisis” over Iran’s
nuclear program. The US is said to be pushing for a
third sanctions resolution in the UN Security Council; support
from the UK and opposition from China and Russia are expected.
19 July 2007: IAEA Director
General ElBaradei said
Iran still has to clarify some outstanding issues before the
IAEA can confirm its nuclear programme is only for peaceful
purposes. Iran has agreed to discuss these issues with the
IAEA.
12 July 2007: Iran and the IAEA agreed
to the modalities for resolving all outstanding issues related
to the agency's investigation of iran's past nuclear activities.
The draft plan entitled, "Understandings
of The Islamic Republic of Iran and the IAEA on the Modalities
of Resolution of the Outstanding Issues," consists
of a 60-day work plan and schedule for Iran and the IAEA to
resolve all outstanding issues.
11 July 2007: IAEA Deputy Director General
for Safeguards Olli Heinonen arrived in Tehran to prepare
a "modality plan" for resolving all outstanding
issues. Heinonen and his team met with Iran's Undersecretary
of the Supreme National Security Council for International
Affairs, Javad Vaeedi, who stated
the purpose of devising the plan at the present time is to
"resolve the issue in Vienna instead of New York."
9 July 2007: IAEA Director
General Mohamed ElBaradei reported
that Iran has slowed down the expansion of its uranium enrichment
program. ElBaradei said IAEA agency inspectors who just revisited
Iran's vast underground enrichment plant at Natanz also noticed
a "fairly slow" pace of feeding uranium into the centrifuges
for enrichment. "We saw a slowing in the process of commissioning
new cascades," he told reporters, referring to interlinked
networks of centrifuges that spin at high speeds to refine
uranium into nuclear fuel. "It is not a full-size freeze,
but it is a fairly marked slowdown... I hope at this delicate
stage Iran will even freeze what they have (running)," he
said after an IAEA meeting. He said the slowdown was a step
in the right direction and he likened it to an Iranian pledge
to him last month to start producing answers to IAEA investigations
meant to verify whether its program is wholly peaceful or
military in nature. "I welcome this since Iran at this stage
needs to do everything to cool things down", ElBaradei added.
This could be cause for restraint in the Security Council,
he suggested.
The US, however, is not convinced that the slow
down is a diplomatic decision, and has suggested that perhaps
technical difficulties are the real reason behind this latest
change.
On 23 May 2007,
the IAEA Director General's report
on the implementation of safeguards in Iran was released.
Jeffrey
Lewis and Paul
Kerr respond.
On 9 April
2007, Reuters reported
that Iran announced it has begun industrial-scale nuclear
fuel production, marking a shift from experimental atomic
fuel work involving a few hundred centrifuges used for enriching
uranium to a process that will involve thousands of machines.
However, Dr. Jeffrey Lewis of Harvard University argues
that while Iran has installed additional 164-machine cascades—maybe
more than 1,000 centrifuges in total—at the Fuel Enrichment
Plant at Natanz, there are many technical aspects that will
prevent this "shift" from being as immediate as the media
is making it out to be.
On 8 April
2007, Iran said
it would not discuss its obvious right to master the
nuclear fuel cycle but was open to talks that could reassure
the West that its atomic plans were not aimed at producing
bombs.
On 4 April
2007, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced
that his government would release the detained 15 British
sailors and marines as an "Easter gift" to the British people.
On 3 April
2007, Iran suggested
a diplomatic resolution to the ongoing 'hostage' crisis is
possible, providing the UK admits it entered into Iranian
waters. UKPrime Minister Tony Blair said
the next two days will be "fairly critical" to resolving the
dispute.
On 2 April
2007, ABC News reported
that "Iran has more than tripled its ability to produce enriched
uranium in the last three months, adding some 1,000 centrifuges
which are used to separate radioactive particles from the
raw material. The development means Iran could have enough
material for a nuclear bomb by 2009..." Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
of Harvard University responded
with a calculation showing how this proclaimation could
be very misleading.
On 29 March
2007, the United States and key allies began pressing
the International Atomic Energy Agency to find Iran in violation
of its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
over Tehran's refusal to allow remote monitoring of its underground
uranium enrichment plant. However, IAEA officials are withholding
judgment, pending examination of Iran's agreements to see
if its refusal to allow installation of extra cameras giving
a full overview of its Natanz operations is a violation of
the treaty.
On 25 March
2007, Iran responded to Resolution
1747, saying
the country would partially suspend cooperation with the International
Atomic Energy Agency and called the sanctions illegal. Ahmadinejad
also said
Iran would continue its nuclear program.
On 24 March
2007, the UN Security Council unanimously voted
in favour of Resolution
1747 for further sanctions against Iran. The P5+1
also released a Joint
Statement on the resolution.
On 23 March
2007, the top UK diplomat at the UN said
a new Security Council resolution on Iran has been agreed
upon and is expected to go to a vote on Saturday. However,
Qatar, Indonesia and South Africa, members of the Security
Council, have concerns.
Qatar and Indonesia want the resolution to call for a nuclear-free
Middle East - meaning Israel should get rid of its nuclear
weapons. South Africa has called for major changes, most of
which have been rejected.
Meanwhile, Iranian authorities arrested
15 British sailors and Marines, accusing them of trespassing
in Iranian waters. The British government and the crew
claim they were inside Iraq waters.
On 20 March
2007, South Africa surprised major powers by proposing
a softening of the document's wording. South Africa, the current
chair of the Security Council, has called for all key sanctions
proposed by major powers, including an arms embargo and financial
bans on an Iranian state bank and the Revolutionary Guard,
to be dropped. Although the original draft could probably
be adopted by the Security Council without South Africa's
backing, the major powers had wanted it to be passed unanimously.
Diplomats at the Security Council now say they do not expect
a vote on the draft resolution on Iran until next week. Adoption
requires a minimum of nine votes on the 15-member council
and no veto. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad plans to
address the council on the day of the vote.
Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear negotiator Ali Hosseini Tash denied
a report
that said Russia had told Tehran it would withhold fuel for
its Bushehr nuclear power plant unless it suspend uranium enrichment.
Russian negotiator Sergey Lavrov also denied
the report.
US Ambassador Alejandro D. Wolff also made some remarks
on Iran and the draft resolution.
On 19 March
2007, the US approved
a visa for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to address
the UN Security Council when it votes on extra sanctions against
Iran. The Security Council is to meet on Wednesday to discuss
the sanctions.
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