North Korea and Nuclear Weapons
“The solution to the nuclear crisis requires
solving North Korea’s security dilemma.”
- David C. Kang, Dartmouth College
Recent
Developments
8 July 2009: The Japanese Parliament has passed
a bill on inspecting ships suspected of carrying illicit cargo
to and from the DPRK. The bill authorized the Japanese Coast
Guard as the principle agent to conduct inspections of suspected
ships in international and Japanese waters while the Self-Defense
Forces are to be on stand-by in the event that the cargo ship’s
crewmembers are heavily armed. The bill does not authorize
the use of force and Japan must get permission from the DPRK
to inspect the ship or to order it to the nearest Japanese
port.
7 July 2009. The UNSC has condemned
the recent missile tests by the DPRK, urging the DPRK to cease
testing and comply with current UNSC sanctions and other international
obligations. The DPRK test-fired
7 ballistic missiles on Saturday, 4 July, according to the
ROK Ministry of Defense. The DPRK tested 3 mid-range Rodong
missiles, as well as four short-range Scud missiles.
Earlier in the week, the DPRK
test-fired four short-range missiles from Sinsang-ni on
its east coast on July 2nd. The ROK described the four short-range
missile tests, as “routine military drills.”
1 July 2009. The DPRK cargo ship, Kang Nam, suspected
of carrying illegal weapons from the DPRK, has turned
back towards the DPRK after being tracked for nearly two
weeks by the American Navy. Officials are still unclear where
the Kang Nam was headed.
28 June 2009. The DPRK threatened
Saturday to shoot down any Japanese planes within its airspace,
claiming that Japan has been embarking on aerial espionage
near one of its missile launch sites. The Japanese Defense
Ministry says its planes regularly gather data but declined
to comment about the threats made on the DPRK’s official
news station, KCNA. On Sunday, the DPRK’s major Communist
party newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun reiterated
the DPRK’s intention of bolstering its “nuclear
deterrence” against the United States.
26 June 2009. In an effort to make the most recent sanctions
against North Korea more effective, the Obama administration
has named
a senior diplomat, Philip S. Goldberg, head of a task force
to coordinate Washington’s financial, political and
military efforts against Pyongyang. Mr. Goldberg will mainly
serve “to make sure there is broader interagency coordination”
and will also travel to China in an attempt to gain more significant
support.
23 June 2009: Following a military meeting with the United
States, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Qin Gang stated
that a return to negotiation through the six-party talks is
the best way to curb the DPRK’s nuclear ambitions. When
asked by the press about the possibility of states inspecting
DPRK cargo ships, Qin said the inspection should be carried
out according to relevant UN resolutions and international
and domestic laws. Qin went on to say that China is does not
have any relevant information about the Kang Nam’s cargo
or destination but that, “In the current situation,
China calls on the involved parties to avoid actions that
may further intensify the tension.”
A DPRK cargo ship, the Kang Nam, is being tracked
by a United States destroyer as it heads Southward with a
suspected shipment of weapons. South Korea's YTN said the
ship is traveling about 230 miles southeast of Shanghai. The
ship’s exact destination has yet to be confirmed, however
the United States has indicated that they believe it may be
headed to Burma. If the King Nam needs refueling it would
most likely stop in Singapore. The Singapore Foreign Affairs
Ministry said, “Singapore takes seriously the proliferation
of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD), their means of delivery
and related materials. If the allegation is true, Singapore
will act appropriately.”
20 June 2009: According the Associated Press, the
DPRK has announced
that any attempts by South Korea to uphold UNSC
Resolution 1874 “would mean a war.” The statement
went on to say that the DPRK would “mercilessly retaliate”
if South Korea “infringed upon the sovereignty of the
DPRK.”
18 June 2009: During a meeting
in Moscow on Wednesday, Russian and Chinese leaders discussed
mutual concerns over North Korea’s recent nuclear test,
expressing hope that the DPRK would return to the six-party
talks. In a joint statement on the issue, Chinese President
Hu Jintao and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said, “Russia
and China are ready to foster the lowering of tension in Northeast
Asia and call for the continuation of efforts by all sides
to resolve disagreements through peaceful means, through dialogue
and consultations.”
16 June 2009: US President Obama urged
the DPRK to abandon its pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic
missiles, saying the international community is resolved to
prevent nuclearisation of the Korean peninsula and that "another
path" exists by which North Korea "can achieve prosperity
and peace."
15 June 2009: In an effort to carry out inspections
of the DPRK’s cargo vessels, the United States Navy
will
track shipments to their destination if they are not granted
permission to inspect them. This is part of what the United
States called the “vigorous enforcement” of UNSC
Resolution 1874. The Obama administration has said they
will report any vessel that refuses inspections to the UN
Security Council. The more aggressive approach stops just
short of blocking the ships, which the DPRK’s government
said
it would consider as an act of war, be met “with resolute
and deadly blows.” US Vice President Biden said
that the Obama administration plans to “[keep] the pressure
on.”
13 June 2009: The DPRK responded
to Friday’s UNSC resolution
1874 by vowing to continue the “weaponization”
of newly extracted plutonium. According to the KCNA,
the DPRK’s official news source, one-third of all spent
nuclear fuel rods have been reprocessed to date and the state
will continue uranium enrichment. Further, the DPRK claims
that any attempts by the United States to blockade the DPRK’s
cargo ships will be taken “as an act of war and met
with a decisive military response.”
12 June 2009: The United Nations Security Council
voted
unanimously on Friday on an enhanced package of sanctions
against North Korea in response to its May 25th nuclear test
and April 5th missile launch in UNSC
Resolution 1874. UNSC Resolution 1874 authorizes United
Nations members to inspect cargo vessels and airplanes suspected
of carrying weapons related material in or out of the DPRK.
The resolution does not make these inspections mandatory and
does not authorize the use of force when carrying them out.
However, it does requires states to stop all “bunkering”
services for North Korean vessels, such as refueling. Resolution
1874 condemns the recent nuclear test, demands the DPRK to
stop the construction of ballistic missiles, and urges the
country to rejoin the nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty.
10 June 2009: China and Russia have reportedly
agreed to suppor an UN
Security Council draft resolution that will limit loans
and money transfers to the DPRK, as well as allow for the
interdiction of cargo ships suspected of carrying nuclear-related
material to or from DRPK. The draft resolution also “condemns
in the strongest terms” the May 25 test, and demands
that the DPRK terminate its nuclear and ballistic missile
programs and cease all missile tests. The resolution asks
UN member states to report within 45 days on their progress
towards the implementation of sanctions and for Secretary
General Ban Ki-moon to name a group of experts to monitor
their enforcement. "This sanctions regime if passed by
the Security Council will bite, and bite in a meaningful way,"
said
US Ambassador Susan Rice. The Council will decide on the matter
tomorrow (11 June).
25 May 2009: The Democratic People’s Republic
of Korea conducted what it claims to be a second nuclear test.
According to the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty Organization, the International Monitoring
System’s (IMS)
seismic stations registered a seismic event at 41.2896 degrees
North and 129.0480 degrees East at 00:54:43 GMT (09:54 local
time). The signal’s area of origin is largely identical
with the 2006
DPRK nuclear test. The event’s magnitude is slightly
higher than in 2006, measuring 4.52 on the Richter scale,
while in 2006 it was 4.1. Those doing the calculations at
ArmsControlWonk.com
suggest the yield of the nuclear explosive device was likely
around 4 KT.
For news from September 2005–April
2009, please see our Archived
News.
Government
and United Nations Resources
UN Security Council Resolution
1874 (2009) (pdf), adopted by the UNSC at its
6141st meeting, 12 June 2009.
Update
on the Six-Party Talks, Fact Sheet, US Department
of State Office of the Spokesman, 10 May 2008.
Judy Aita, "North
Korea Talks on Track, U.S. Negotiator Says,"
Press Release, US Department of State, 7 March 2007.
Joint
Statement from the Third Session of the Fifth Round
of the Six-Party Talks, 13 February 2007.
Office of the Spokesman, "Initial
Actions To Implement Six-Party Joint Statement,"
US Department of State, Washington, DC, 13 February
2007.
Statement
by President Bush, White House Press Office,
13 February 2007.
"North
Korea To Be Key Topic on Bush China Visit, Aide
Says," US State Department, 19 November 2005.
China, DPRK, Japan, ROK, Russia, US, "Joint
Statement of the Fourth Round of the Six-Party Talks,"
Beijing, 19 September 2005.
Sharon A. Squassoni, “North
Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: How Soon an Arsenal?”
CRS Report for Congress RS21391 (Washington, DC:
Congressional Research Services, The Library of
Congress, 1 August 2005)
IAEA Board of Governors, “Chairman’s
Conclusion on Item 5 (b): Nuclear Verification,”
Report by the Director General on the implementation
of safeguards in the Democratic People’s Republic
of Korea, 3 March 2005.
"Remarks
With European Union President Jean Asselborn, European
Union High Representative and Secretary General
Javier Solana, and European Union External Relations
Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner," United
States State Department Press Release, 10 February
2005.
KCNA News Agency, “N
Korea’s statement in full,” BBC
Online, 10 February 2005.
International
Atomic Energy Agency – In Focus: IAEA and
DPRK
Comprehensive IAEA
Timeline of key events in the IAEA/DPRK Relationship
(1977-2005)
IAEA
Fact Sheet on DPRK Safeguards
Complete
Text of the 1994 Agreement between the United States
and North Korea
NGO
and Think-Tank Resources
John Feffer, "Talking
Peace, Preparing for War," Inter Press Service
News Agency, 14 April 2008.
James Acton, "Can
We Verify NORK Pu Declaration?," Arms Control
Wonk, 7 December 2007.
Paul Kerr, "North
Korea Talks Stalled by Banking Dispute," Arms Control
Today, April 2007.
René Wadlow, "The
Korean Peace Process: A Major Step Forward," Newropeans
Magazine, 15 February 2007.
Paul Kerr, "No
Progress at North Korea Talks," Arms Control Today,
January/February 2007.
Paul Kerr, "Iran,
North Korea Deepen Missile Cooperation," Arms Control
Tolday, January/February 2007.
Dingli Shen, "Meaningfully
engaging North Korea," Bulletin of Atomic Scientists,
17 January 2007.
Center for Nonproliferation Studies, "North
Korea Conducts Nuclear Test," Monterey Institute of
International Studies, 10 October 2006.
Statement
by Sam Nunn about the Apparent North Korean Nuclear Test,
Nuclear Threat Initiative, 9 October 2006.
Global Security Newswire, "North
Korean Crisis Still Stalled One Year Later," Nuclear
Threat Initiative, 18 September 2006.
Paul Kerr, "News
Analysis: North Korea: Are the Six-Party Nuclear Talks
Dead?," Arms Control Today, September 2006.
Paul Kerr, "Security
Council Condemns NK Missile Tests," Arms Control Today,
September 2006.
David Krieger, “Why
Nations Go Nuclear,” The Sunflower,
Issue 103, December 2005.
Daryl G. Kimball, "'Getting
Serious' About North Korea," Arms Control Today, Washington,
DC: Arms Control Association, December 2005.
Paul Kerr, "North
Korea Increasing Weapons Capabilities," Arms Control
Today, Washington, DC: Arms Control Association,
December 2005.
Hui Zhang, "Don't blame Beijing: In its own way, China
is actually trying to influence North Korea," Bulletin
of Atomic Scientists,
vol. 61, no. 5, September/October 2005.
Seven
Questions: Dealing with North Korea," Foreign Policy,
July 2005.
Robert S. Norris and Hans M. Kristensen, “North
Korea’s nuclear program, 2005,” Bulletin
of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 61, No. 03, May/June
2005.
Bernard Gwertzman, “Korea
Expert Pinkston: Six-Nation North Korea Talks 'Are Dead',”
interview with Daniel A. Pinkston, Council on Foreign
Relations, 9 May 2005.
Andrew F. Diamond and Daniel A. Pinkston, “Don’t
Outsource North Korea Problem to China,” The
Korea Herald, 25 April 2005.
Special
Report on the North Korea Nuclear Weapons Statement,
East Asia Nonproliferation Program (Monterey, CA: Center
for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International
Studies, 11 February 2005)
John Burroughs, "Nonproliferation
Treaty Applies to Both North Korea and the United States,"
Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation (New York: Lawyers'
Committee on Nuclear Policy, Spring 2003)
Arms Control Association, North
Korea Special Issue, Arms Control Today, May 2003.
Institute for Energy and Environmental Research and Lawyers'
Committee on Nuclear Policy, "Compliance
Assessment of North Korean and U.S. Obligations Under
the Non-Proliferation Treaty and 1994 Agreed Framework,"
Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation (New York: Lawyers'
Committee on Nuclear Policy, 23 January 2003)
Norman D. Levin and Yong-Sup Han, Sunshine
in Korea: The South Korean Debate over Policies Toward
North Korea (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation,
2002)
Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace: Korea
Center
for Nonproliferation Studies: North Korea Resources, East
Asia Non-Proliferation Program, Comprehensive Timeline
(1977-1999)
Center
for Nonproliferation Studies, Monterey Institute of International
Studies: North Korea Special Collection
Council
on Foreign Relations (CFR): Proliferation Issues
Federation
of American Scientists (FAS): North Korean Nuclear Weapons
Program
Institute
for Science and International Security: North Korea
Library
of Congress North Korea Profile
Nuclear
Threat Initiative (NTI): North Korea
Academic
Resources
Jason
Qian and Xiaohui (Anne) Wu,"Ending
Mutually Assured Mistrust," The Korea Herald,
21 November 2005.
Xiaohui (Anne) Wu, "Bottling
the Nuclear Genie," The Boston Globe, 9 October
2005.
John S. Park, "Inside
Multilateralism: The Six-Party Talks," The Washington
Quarterly, 28, no. 4, Autumn 2005.
Xiaohui (Anne) Wu, "Kim
Jong-il Practicing the 'Art of War'," The Korea
Herald, 14 August 2005.
David C. Kang, The
Avoidable Crisis in North Korea (Philadelphia, PA:
Foreign Policy Research Institute, Summer 2003)
Harvard University, Belfer Center for Science
and International Affairs: Science,
Technology, and Public Policy Program
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