A Statement on South Asia and Nukes

Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

Conference on Disarmament

General Assembly First Committee

UN Disarmament Commission

Special Session on Disarmament

A STATEMENT ON SOUTH ASIA AND NUKES

Speaker: Admiral L Ramdas

The United Nations and the rest of the International Community watched helplessly and in utter bewilderment as Iraq was attacked by the Coalition forces led by the United States of America, and subsequently ransacked as the US tried to regain control. South Asia too like everyone else is beginning to understand this emerging “New World Order”. Whilst there is no doubt that soon the U.N and the rest of the International Community will come to recognize the new Government in Iraq, the question that is uppermost in most people’s minds is “Whose turn is it to be next?” Such has been the awesome effect of this war that it has generated mixed feelings of fear and hatred in people against the American War Machine. Needless to say such a development does not augur well for International peace and security. Never before in post World War II history, has the world witnessed such polarization as against this illegal war on Iraq.

Millions of ordinary people turned up to voice their anger and anguish in the United States, United Kingdom, Europe and in other parts of the world. In South Asia too it was no different. Meanwhile the Governments of the two main actors on the South Asian scene- India and Pakistan-have maintained a highly diplomatic profile without trying to be openly critical of the US action in Iraq. Given the proximity of the recent war and the possession of weapons of mass destruction by both these countries, the reasons for their stand is not too difficult to understand.

Since the war started in Iraq some irresponsible statements have been made by the Foreign Minister of India, suggesting some pre- emptive strikes (on Pakistan) like the American action on Iraq. This got a prompt rebuttal from General Colin Powell stating that there cannot be parallels drawn between the two situations. Needless to say this has inspired him to go on to say further, that the USA will give more time to address the Kashmir issue once the Iraq war was behind them! In this context the press has reported that Mr Armitage Deputy Secretary of State and Ms Christine Rocca from the State Department will be visiting India and Pakistan next month. Clearly they are not on a sightseeing tour!

Underpinning all this is the nuclear weapons and missile programs in both the countries. There has been no let up in this area. Both sides had deployed nuclear tipped missiles during last year’s face off. They have recently concluded some more missile tests. Steady progress is also being made to hone up command, control, communication, and intelligence (C3I) and other military systems. The latest statement of the Indian Prime Minister reaffirms peaceful approach as the only way for settling all disputes. Broadly speaking this is also Pakistan’s stand. We need to push this latest initiative of the Indian Prime Minister.

Till such time as some political understanding is reached it is of vital importance that the Nuclear situation is managed well and all possible risk reduction measures are taken. The memorandum of understanding signed between the two Foreign Secretaries of India and Pakistan on Feb 21, 1999, at Lahore as a part of the Lahore Declaration is a good template to resume the dialogue in this critical area. Some of the details including Non First Use and No War Pacts can also be discussed here.

I will briefly touch upon some other related issues.

· Nuclear Disarmament. The slender chances that anyone may have had earlier to think of nuclear disarmament in South Asia also seems to have evaporated after the attack on Iraq. India and Pakistan may feel less vulnerable than Iraq because of their nukes! However in a global context India and Pakistan will move in step with other recognized Nuclear Weapon States as far as Nuclear Disarmament is concerned!

· Desire to gain Nuclear Weapons. One of the likely fallout of the Iraq war may well be for countries like Iran and Syria to acquire nuclear weapons quickly. These developments will have far reaching implications for South Asia and regional security as a whole. The importance of keeping the sea lanes open during any future conflict in this area : to ensure regular flow of oil to countries like Japan and India need hardly be over emphasized.

· Nuclear weapons and Terrorists. Notwithstanding assurances given by Governments, the nukes / fissile material falling into wrong hands cannot be ruled out. Some areas especially in Pakistan are still home to many former Taliban and Al Qaeda elements. No one seems to know where all the leaders including, Osama Bin Laden and Mullah Omar are today. This threat should therefore not be ruled out.

Conclusion

This preparatory committee meeting is unique in a way because it could not have been more timely. The war in Iraq has upset many noble ideas and visions of a global society free from war, hunger and disease. The biggest tragedy has been the disempowerment of the United Nations and the disintegration of the rule of law as also the weakening of democratic structures and democracy itself as evinced in the actions of the U.S. Government. The world faces new challenges and also opportunities. It is up to the community of nations to put our heads together to ensure that we strengthen the United Nations in such a way that International Law and Democracy is upheld, This is not only necessary but the only civilized way of creating a vibrant “New World Order”.

Convenor: Admiral L Ramdas, Abolition 2000