The United Nations and the rest of the International Community
watched helplessly and in utter bewilderment as Iraq was attacked
by the Coalition forces led by the United States of America, and
subsequently ransacked as the US tried to regain control. South
Asia too like everyone else is beginning to understand this emerging
“New World Order”. Whilst there is no doubt that soon
the U.N and the rest of the International Community will come to
recognize the new Government in Iraq, the question that is uppermost
in most people’s minds is “Whose turn is it to be next?”
Such has been the awesome effect of this war that it has generated
mixed feelings of fear and hatred in people against the American
War Machine. Needless to say such a development does not augur well
for International peace and security. Never before in post World
War II history, has the world witnessed such polarization as against
this illegal war on Iraq.
Millions of ordinary people turned up to voice their anger and
anguish in the United States, United Kingdom, Europe and in other
parts of the world. In South Asia too it was no different. Meanwhile
the Governments of the two main actors on the South Asian scene-
India and Pakistan-have maintained a highly diplomatic profile without
trying to be openly critical of the US action in Iraq. Given the
proximity of the recent war and the possession of weapons of mass
destruction by both these countries, the reasons for their stand
is not too difficult to understand.
Since the war started in Iraq some irresponsible statements have
been made by the Foreign Minister of India, suggesting some pre-
emptive strikes (on Pakistan) like the American action on Iraq.
This got a prompt rebuttal from General Colin Powell stating that
there cannot be parallels drawn between the two situations. Needless
to say this has inspired him to go on to say further, that the USA
will give more time to address the Kashmir issue once the Iraq war
was behind them! In this context the press has reported that Mr
Armitage Deputy Secretary of State and Ms Christine Rocca from the
State Department will be visiting India and Pakistan next month.
Clearly they are not on a sightseeing tour!
Underpinning all this is the nuclear weapons and missile programs
in both the countries. There has been no let up in this area. Both
sides had deployed nuclear tipped missiles during last year’s
face off. They have recently concluded some more missile tests.
Steady progress is also being made to hone up command, control,
communication, and intelligence (C3I) and other military systems.
The latest statement of the Indian Prime Minister reaffirms peaceful
approach as the only way for settling all disputes. Broadly speaking
this is also Pakistan’s stand. We need to push this latest
initiative of the Indian Prime Minister.
Till such time as some political understanding is reached it is
of vital importance that the Nuclear situation is managed well and
all possible risk reduction measures are taken. The memorandum of
understanding signed between the two Foreign Secretaries of India
and Pakistan on Feb 21, 1999, at Lahore as a part of the Lahore
Declaration is a good template to resume the dialogue in this critical
area. Some of the details including Non First Use and No War Pacts
can also be discussed here.
I will briefly touch upon some other related issues.
· Nuclear Disarmament. The slender chances that anyone may
have had earlier to think of nuclear disarmament in South Asia also
seems to have evaporated after the attack on Iraq. India and Pakistan
may feel less vulnerable than Iraq because of their nukes! However
in a global context India and Pakistan will move in step with other
recognized Nuclear Weapon States as far as Nuclear Disarmament is
concerned!
· Desire to gain Nuclear Weapons. One of the likely fallout
of the Iraq war may well be for countries like Iran and Syria to
acquire nuclear weapons quickly. These developments will have far
reaching implications for South Asia and regional security as a
whole. The importance of keeping the sea lanes open during any future
conflict in this area : to ensure regular flow of oil to countries
like Japan and India need hardly be over emphasized.
· Nuclear weapons and Terrorists. Notwithstanding assurances
given by Governments, the nukes / fissile material falling into
wrong hands cannot be ruled out. Some areas especially in Pakistan
are still home to many former Taliban and Al Qaeda elements. No
one seems to know where all the leaders including, Osama Bin Laden
and Mullah Omar are today. This threat should therefore not be ruled
out.
Conclusion
This preparatory committee meeting is unique in a way because it
could not have been more timely. The war in Iraq has upset many
noble ideas and visions of a global society free from war, hunger
and disease. The biggest tragedy has been the disempowerment of
the United Nations and the disintegration of the rule of law as
also the weakening of democratic structures and democracy itself
as evinced in the actions of the U.S. Government. The world faces
new challenges and also opportunities. It is up to the community
of nations to put our heads together to ensure that we strengthen
the United Nations in such a way that International Law and Democracy
is upheld, This is not only necessary but the only civilized way
of creating a vibrant “New World Order”.
