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Reductions or redux?
Ray Acheson, Reaching Critical Will
Front page article from the News in Review,
the daily NGO newsletter from the second session of the
Preparatory Committee for the 2010 nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty Review Conference
Friday, 2 May 2008
Complete PDF of this
edition.
On 30 April, the PrepCom heard the last of the general statements
and moved onto cluster one issues, which are primarily related
to nuclear disarmament and to the non-acquisition and transfer
of nuclear weapons. Many states focused on the concept of
security, with the representatives of Libya, Kuwait, and South
Africa arguing that nuclear weapons foster insecurity and
fuel conflict rather than increase stability. Switzerland’s
Amb. Streuli said that the possession of nuclear weapons also
incites proliferation, arguing that it is an an illusion “to
believe that by their delays in honouring their commitment
to nuclear disarmament, the Nuclear-Weapon States can expect
the appeal of nuclear weapons for other states to diminish.”
Quick to point out their disarmament measures, France, Russia,
the United Kingdom, and the United States spoke about their
reductions and holdings, and the UK also mentioned the work
that its Atomic Weapons Establishment has undertaken on verification
of disarmament.
However, the disarmament measures listed by the delegates
did not paint the whole picture. As explained in the NGO presentations
on Tuesday, France has reached the deployment stage of a major
new effort to renew both its sea- and air-based nuclear capability.
Russia is developing more capable road-mobile ICBMs and recently
launched the first of its new class of SSBNs. In 2007, the
UK parliament endorsed the government’s plans to modernize
and extend the service life of its Trident system to 2042.
The US has continued life extension programs to modernize
its existing stockpile and, in some cases, improve their military
capabilities. China, which is the only nuclear weapon state
currently qualitatively and quantitatively improving is arsenal,
did not report on its actions or holdings.
Yet Dr. Chris Ford of the United States remarked, “We
have, in fact, done more than merely ‘pursue negotiations’
on disarmament, the expression used in Article VI. The United
States has taken effective measures toward nuclear disarmament,
and we continue to do so.” While recognizing and welcoming
that the US and other nuclear weapon states have reduced their
nuclear arsenals, reductions do not actually indicate they
have taken effective measures toward nuclear disarmament.
In this context, the Canadian delegation emphasized, “Measuring
disarmament merely in terms of the overall number of weapons
eliminated has its limitations.” Andrew Lichterman and
Jacqueline Cabasso of the Western States Legal Foundation
argued in 2004, “There is no way to reconcile this resurgence
of nuclear weapons development with disarmament.... The approach
taken by the United States towards its own disarmament obligations
... expects us to accept the possession and constant modernization
of thousands of nuclear weapons for many decades to come as
meaningful progress towards disarmament.”
The reductions of the nuclear weapon states’ arsenals
come with a price not listed in the NPT. The US statement
went on to emphasize that some of the necessary conditions
for achieving the goals of Article VI include developing “responsive
production infrastructure”—the ability to build
new types of weapons “on demand”—and to
improve its non-nuclear forces. The non-nuclear weapon states
would not have signed a treaty that said the nuclear weapon
states can improve, modernize, and extend the lifetime of
their nuclear weapons as long as they reduce their numbers.
Nor would they have signed if it had said that in exchange
for reductions in warhead numbers, the nuclear weapon states
could develop their conventional forces to excessive levels,
in addition to prompt global strike, anti-missile, and space
weapon technologies.
This statement by the United States highlights the importance
of both transparency and education. Transparency, through
the reporting on holdings, acquitions, and plans as called
for by the New Agenda Coalition, Canada, and Brazil, would
help ensure that information is available on a regular and
accessible basis to both governments and citizens. Education
would create the opportunity for people to develop critical
thinking skills necessary to decipher and analyze this information,
along with the deluge of media misinformation and government
propaganda.
The written version of the US statement also emphasized their
efforts to “sketch the conditions that would have to
exist in order for nuclear weapons abolition to become a realistic
and attractive policy choice for real-world decision-makers
among the Nuclear Weapons States.” In the Swiss statement
on cluster one, Ambassador Streuli countered this view, stressing
“it is becoming increasingly difficult to accept the
argumentation of Nuclear-Weapon States which invoke the negative
development of security conditions to justify their slowness
in the matter of nuclear disarmament, while almost all Non-Nuclear
Weapon States are experiencing the same conditions but nevertheless
honour their pledge not acquire nuclear weapons.” In
1996, the Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear
Weapons emphasized, “Progress towards a nuclear weapon
free world should not be made contingent upon other changes
in the international security environment. Successful nuclear
weapon negotiations will benefit other security related negotiations
and progress in regional and other political and security
related negotiations will enhance the prospect of building
a nuclear weapon free world.”
As an alternative approach to the question of “creating
the proper security environment for disarmament,” Japan’s
Ambassador Tarui emphasized the importance of disarmament
and non-proliferation education as a tool to working toward
creating the conditions for a nuclear weapon free world. In
a statement on behalf of twenty countries, he cited the UN
Secretary-General’s 2002 report on disarmament and non-proliferation
education, which emphasized that in order to change concepts
of security and threats, new thinking from governments and
citizens alike is necessary. New and critical thinking is
essential to move from a concept of state security to human
security and from believing that nuclear weapons guarantee
security to realizing they undermine it.
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