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NGO Analysis of the Seventh Review
Conference of the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
"A Phoenix of Hope"-
Rhianna Tyson, Reaching Critical Will/WILPF
see
other analyses in the News in
Review, Final Edition, No.
21
"Spineless
NPT Conference Papers Over Cracks and Ends with a Whimper"-
Rebecca Johnson, Acronym Institute
read
other reports from the Acronym Institute
"The
NPT Review Conference: No bargains in the UN basement"
- Patricia Lewis, UNIDIR
"Deadly
Deadlock: A political analysis of the Seventh Review Conference
of the Non-Proliferation Treaty,"- Hon. Douglas Roche,
O.C., Middle Powers Initiative
"The NPT Crisis Concerns Us All"-
Praful Bidwai (published in The News International [Pakistan]
on June 4, 2005)
"Failure
in New York"- Joseph Cirincione, Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace
"NPT Conference Collapses in Acrimony"-
Dr. Erika Simpson, Canada
"Reflections on the NPT"- Alice
Slater, Global Resource Action Center on the Environment
"Armi nucleari, terrorismo
e non proliferazione: Le conseguenze della Conferenza di Riesame
2005 del TNP"- Giorgio Alba, Archivo Disarmo
"Undermining
the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty: It Didn't Start with the Bush
Administration" - Stephen Zunes, Foreign Policy In Focus
"Can We Avoid the Apocalypse?" - Peter
G. Cohen
Report from the 2005 NPT Review Conference-
Liz Griffiths, Clergy Against Nuclear Arms
"The
NPT at a Crossroads"- Wade Huntley, Simons Centre for Disarmament
and Non-Proliferation Research
To post your organization's RevCon analysis, contact
us.
NPT Conference Collapses
in Acrimony
(This article originally appeared in the journal, Embassy,
June 1st, 2005)
By Erika Simpson
The abysmal failure of diplomats from 188 nations to agree on Friday
to anything at all -- not a single document or proposal -- means
that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has reached the
greatest crisis point since its inception in 1968. In fact, the
entire nuclear non-proliferation regime faces its greatest and most
daunting threat ever, augmented by the United States' decision to
pull-out of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and to renege from
signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.
The blame for this sorry state of affairs will be placed squarely
by countries in the Non-Aligned Movement on the current U.S. administration,
even as they begin thinking about possibly acquiring nuclear weapons
of their own. The fact that nobody could agree on any proposals
to reign in Iran and North Korea, despite a plethora of ideas from
non-governmental organizations in North America and the European
Union, means these two countries will be perceived as having implicitly
obtained the 'go-ahead' to acquire nuclear arsenals of their own.
We face the frightening prospect of a world of nuclear 'haves' and
'have-nots' where possession of nuclear weapons is perceived as
a state's right, even a normal state of affairs. Moreover, future
attempts at the UN to control terrorists from acquiring their own
nuclear arsenals will probably be jeered at outright because diplomats
wasted precious time at this NPT Review Conference arguing about
diplomatic wording, instead of solving pressing nuclear problems.
A disturbing precedent has been set for any future arms control
and disarmament conferences.
Debates about punctuation marks dominate the diplomatic discussions
Historians will look back at the failed Review Conference of May
2005 and explain that strong disagreement centred around the placement
and retention of an asterisked sentence that was uttered by the
chair of the review conference, Ambassador Sergio Duarte from Brazil.
Fervent debate about 'the asterisk' was supported by the Non-Aligned
Movement and opposed by the U.S. and other members of the Western
group. But this final debate was preceded by a month of similarly
distressing debates about whether to include documents from the
previous 1995 and 2000 Review Conferences in the agenda. These fervent
debates were not just the normal daunting challenges faced by career
diplomats; they disguised basic opposing interests that could not
be bridged despite pressure and lobbying from over 5000 representatives
from non-governmental organizations all over the world. Even the
united appeal of over 2000 mayors in a missive organized by the
Mayor of Hiroshima, as well as strong messages by UN Secretary General
Koffi Annan, and former U.S. Defence Secretary Robert McNamara failed
to impel the diplomats to come to any agreement whatsoever.
Secret discussions focus around the motives of the United States,
U.K., and Iran
The diplomatic discussions were held behind closed doors -- ending
in acrimonious disagreement late Friday afternoon -- but it is evident
that the original nuclear weapons states (U.S., Russia, U.K., France,
and China) were roundly criticized for not having lived up to their
obligations under Article VI of the NPT to move decisively toward
the irreversible elimination of their nuclear arsenals. In particular,
the United States' relative inaction led to well-warranted charges
of hypocrisy by many non-nuclear weapon states. To some, it was
particularly galling that the United States and the United Kingdom
were seeking to deny access to nuclear technologies to Iran at the
same time as their own nuclear stockpiles remained far higher. It
seemed unfair that the nuclear powers condemned Iran for attempting
to process nuclear technology at the same time as they turned a
blind eye to Japan's development of nuclear processing facilities.
Even more disturbing for some from the Middle Eastern bloc (particularly
Egypt) was the United States' implicit support of Israel's retention
of its own nuclear stockpile (its 'bomb-in-the-basement'). Proposals
for a nuclear weapon free zone in the Middle East were met with
disinterest or opposition by mid-level American diplomats, and high-level
U.S. diplomats, like Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice chose not
to attend the conference.
Prior work of the Canadian government and various organizations
comes to naught
In preparation for this year's Review Conference, the Canadian
government and many organizations and individuals around the world
worked to prepare lengthy reports and detailed suggestions. For
example, last spring the Middle Powers Initiative and Pugwash Canada
sponsored a roundtable for Canadian officials and NGO representatives
which recommended building bridges between the member states of
NATO and those of the 'New Agenda Coalition' to strengthen the 'moderate
middle' of the nuclear debate. We discussed building bridges between
the nuclear-weapon states and the non-nuclear-weapon states to open
the road to substantive progress on disarmament and non-proliferation.
The paper was circulated worldwide and used to prepare many policy-makers,
politicians, and journalists for the substantive discussions that
were expected at the NPT Review Conference. But the Conference itself
was spent in endless debate about procedural issues. Consequently,
delegates from NGOs around the world had plenty of time on their
hands to network in the basement of the UN headquarters, and calls
for more radical action can probably be expected in the future.
The root cause of the conference's collapse
It was hoped that a month of discussions at the UN would produce
solid recommendations and a substantive final document. But the
conference was simply adjourned with no final report, chairman's
summary or even minimal public details about the sources of the
conflict. When asked on Friday what the fundamental cause of the
failure was, the chair of the conference said, "I think you
can write several books on that." Most of the meetings were
held behind closed doors so it is difficult to ascertain what, exactly,
happened. But it seems clear that the most fundamental problem at
the heart of all the procedural wrangling was the United States'
approach to the relative weight that should be given to disarmament
and non-proliferation. The Bush administration refused to countenance
that the treaty's chief priority should be disarmament, as promised
under Article VI by the nuclear powers and previously agreed upon
by the Clinton government. The previous Clinton administration had
promised to sign and ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, reduce
U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, refrain from testing, and halt the
production of weapons-grade nuclear materials. These commitments
were included in the final documents of the previous 1995 and 2000
Review Conferences in what became known as "the 13 steps"
-- specific actions the nuclear powers agreed to as part of their
disarmament commitments under the NPT. Indeed, the 13 steps included
"an unequivocal undertaking by the Nuclear Weapon States to
accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals."
Apparently, the Bush administration sought to break free of these
promises by denying their importance.
Instead American diplomats obfuscated by insisting upon focusing
on proliferation threats by rogue states such as North Korea and
Iran. U.S. officials argued that counter-proliferation was key while
many others (including Canadian diplomats) argued that the U.S.
and the other Nuclear Weapon States were at fault for not honouring
their NPT obligations to disarm. In fact, U.S. administration officials
said in interviews reported in the New York Times on Friday that
they had given up hope several weeks ago that the meeting would
accomplish anything, and they defended their decision not to send
Secretary Rice to press Mr. Bush's agenda. Instead, the American
representative, Jackie W. Sanders, said the United States wanted
to continue the discussion "in other fora," without describing
when or where. As Canada's Ambassador Paul Meyer summed up, "We
have seen precious time that might have been devoted to exchanges
on substance and the development of common ground squandered by
procedural brinkmanship."
Many efforts to develop common ground and build bridges are stymied
Just prior to the Conference, a 'bridge' on the long road to nuclear
disarmament was built when eight NATO States supported a New Agenda
Coalition resolution at the UN calling for more speed in implementing
commitments to the NPT. The bridge gained extra strength when Japan
and South Korea joined with the NATO 8 -- Belgium, Canada, Germany,
Lithuania, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway and Turkey. It was
hoped these states, along with the New Agenda countries -- Brazil,
Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, South Africa and Sweden --
would form an impressive centre in the nuclear weapons debate and
could play a determining role in the outcome of the 2005 NPT Review
Conference. What happened?
It is too early to say whether the New Agenda Coalition and the
Middle Powers Initiative played any significant role. Whilst it
was true that seven NATO states joined with Canada, which for two
years had stood alone in NATO in supporting the New Agenda resolution,
the fact that important NATO players such as Germany, Norway, The
Netherlands and Belgium took a more pro-active stance seems to have
had little, if any impact on American officials. The message these
countries tried to send to the Nuclear Weapons States (especially
the U.S.) to take more significant steps to fulfill commitments
they already made to the NPT seems to have utterly failed.
Working toward nuclear disarmament -- despite the Bush administration's
recalcitrance
It is now up to the friends and allies of the United States --
who live in open democracies -- to steadfastly question whether
the Great Powers' enormous stockpiles of nuclear weapons are necessary.
It may be that the diplomatic problems at the NPT Review Conference
could be tackled next year at an unofficial conference sponsored
by Canada that focuses on striking a 'balance.' We could focus on
issues concerning 'vertical' proliferation -- which relate to Article
VI and promises to decrease, rather than increase the numbers of
weapons of the Nuclear Weapons States. Plus we could wrestle with
issues surrounding 'horizontal' proliferation -- which revolve around
handling the concerns of countries, like the U.S. and France, about
possible Iranian or North Korean plans to acquire or develop nuclear
weapons. It may be that the 13 Steps need to be entirely jettisoned
in favour of smaller stepping stones toward nuclear disarmament,
at least until the current American administration changes. But
the most pressing problem we need to tackle at such a global conference,
possibly in Ottawa, relates to the Great Powers' threats to possibly
resort to pre-emptive nuclear war rather than rely on minimal deterrence.
Instead of moving toward nuclear disarmament -- and eventual nuclear
abolition -- they are drastically decreasing global security.
-- Dr. Erika Simpson is an associate professor of international
relations in the Department of Political Science at the University
of Western Ontario in London, Canada and the author of NATO and
the Bomb (2001: McGill-Queen's University Press). She attended the
2004 Preparatory Committee meeting in New York City and the Atlanta
II Consultations at the Carter Center in Atlanta as a representative
of the Canadian Pugwash Group which is working closely with the
Middle Powers Initiative under the chairmanship of Canadian Senator
Douglas Roche to support the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Can We Avoid the Apocalypse?
By Peter G. Cohen
The intransigence of the Bush administration set the tone for
the failure of the Non Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in
May. Not satisfied with that, Robert G. Joseph - notorious for his
opposition to international treaties - has become Undersecretary
of State for Arms Control. Bolton has been nominated to represent
the US at the UN. "It doesn't bode well for future negotiations
of threat-reduction agreements," said nuclear expert Cirincione.
"Bolton and Joseph are dedicated to tearing down the arms control
treaties, not building new ones."
The administration has declared war on the peace movement, on
the rule of law, on every person who doesn't want our country to
incinerate human beings, on every person who doesn't want to see
the world filled with radioactive fallout and the inevitable rise
in cancer, weakened immune systems and children born with genetic
defects.
We have lived with this threat for too long; we have lost our
sense of urgency, even though proliferation and terrorism are increasing
the chances of disaster. We live our lives with a repressed awareness
that we and millions of others are targets for aging nuclear weapons
and cold-war control systems of unknown reliability - all on high
alert. This is an unsustainable situation. Either we move resolutely
on the path to disarmament, or we are in increasing danger of a
horrible terrorist act, or a nuclear exchange caused by human or
mechanical failure. It is up to us.
Disaster is not inevitable. At the 2000 Review Conference all
of the 188 nations of the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) agreed
to 13 practical steps toward nuclear disarmament. The United States
could take many of those steps without losing its overwhelming nuclear
superiority. They include signing the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty,
a moratorium on all testing, banning the production of weapons fissile
materials, weapons reductions, transparency, and developing the
technology to verify international compliance in a nuclear weapons-free
world.
But at the May 2005 Review Conference the United States reversed
its policy and refused to accept or even discuss these treaty obligations.
We would only discuss the non-proliferation aspects of the treaty,
while maintaining the right to use nuclear weapons against anyone
trying to obtain them. This perversity was distressing to the international
community and left many non-nuclear nations wondering whether they
should try to obtain nuclear weapons for their own security.
What Can Be Done?
In spite of the fact that the vast majority of Americans and of
the world's nations want a nuclear-free world and that good information
on nuclear weapons is readily available, the Bush administration
persists in placing these weapons at the center of their defense
policy. When I try to visualize President Bush or his successor
making a U-turn in our policy and living up to our treaty obligations,
I see that the cause of that change is a broad, politically active
organization, (as effective as the National Rifle Association) threatening
the reelection of any incumbent who does not support nuclear disarmament.
In the fifties, SANE was such an organization and it was able
to achieve the nuclear test ban in spite of cold war tensions. Can
we do it again, or have the luxuries of American life robbed us
of our will to survive? I think we need both rational solutions
and a passionate love of life to fight the arrogance and corruption
of the suicidal Bush nuclear policies.
The NoNukes Plan
Goal:
We need to transform the 2/3 majority of Americans who oppose nuclear
weapons into an effective political force that can prod the U.S.
to lead the world in nuclear disarmament, in securing weapons grade
materials and in ending proliferation.
These goals are indivisible. We cannot get the international cooperation
on non-proliferation and securing materials that we need unless
we begin the process of irreversible nuclear disarmament. Our current
"do as I say, not as I do" approach has not and will not
work. Like most arrogant behavior, it breeds more resentment than
cooperation.
To build such a force we need to educate younger people on what
these weapons are really about, to remind them that today's weapons
are seven to forty times more powerful than the bomb we dropped
on Hiroshima, that these weapons are useless against terrorists
hiding among civilian populations, that even the smallest weapons
throw up radioactive dust that travels vast distances and poisons
innocent people and other forms of life wherever it lands.
We need to remind people of the huge cost of developing and maintaining
workable weapons and their delivery systems in both money and human
lives. We must count not only the thousands of lives lost to cancers
and other radiation diseases, but the thousands of lives reduced
by hunger, disease and ignorance because our government spends the
money on weapons of mass destruction.
I visualize a non-partisan organization that does everything possible
to change this suicidal policy to one of working for a nuclear weapons-free
world. Imagine a world in which there is less fear, in which the
future is more assured and in which families can raise their children
without fear of insidious radiation disease.
We need an organization that provides basic nuclear information
to the public, suggests easy ways to influence our representatives,
and that is organized around congressional districts. It is much
harder for a representative to ignore a local demonstration outside
of his office than one in distant Washington. Plus, there are thousands
of working people who care about the issue but who cannot afford
a trip to the capitol.
We also have to face the fact that many thousands of Americans,
from scientists to miners, make their living in weapons-related
activities. We must support the conversion of that work force to
the difficult job of disposing of nuclear weapons and their materials.
Safe, permanent disposal of all radioactive waste is a problem that
must be solved, if our grandchildren are to have a healthy future.
Nuclear weapons are a burden on our society, a continuing threat
to the health of every family and an obstacle to the international
trust and cooperation essential to solving the world's problems.
Let us not pass them on to another generation of Americans.
# # #
Peter G. Cohen was on a troopship bound for Japan when the bomb
was dropped on Hiroshima. He prepared materials on nuclear weapons
for the Ban the Bomb campaign of the 1950s. He was a peace candidate
for U.S Congress in 1968 and Executive Director of the New Democratic
Coalition-PA in Œ69-¹70. He can be reached at <aerie2@verizon.net>
Reflections on the
2005 NPT Review: Crisis and Opportunity
by Alice Slater
(originally published as "10 Years of Mad Cowboy Nuclearism"
in the News in Review, Final
Edition.)
This is my tenth year with the Non-Proliferation Treaty. I was at
the 1995 Review and Extension Conference when the nuclear bullies
twisted metaphorical arms to get the indefinite extension. If it
hadn’t been for the promises made for “systematic and
progressive efforts for nuclear disarmament”, together with
pledges to sign a CTBT one year later, negotiate a fiss-ban treaty
and establish a WMD-free zone in the Middle East, the nuclear powers
would not have received their hard-sought gift to make the treaty
permanent. Still, the evident reluctance of the nuclear powers to
commit to a nuclear weapons free world inspired NGOs at that meeting
to form the Abolition 2000 Network calling for a treaty to eliminate
nuclear weapons and, presciently, recognizing the “inextricable
link between nuclear weapons and nuclear power”.
Despite the dreadful flaws in the CTBT, which was negotiated in
Geneva and unprecedentedly brought to the General Assembly for signature
without consensus over India’s objections to the loopholes,
which allowed virtual-reality, computer-simulated testing of new
weapons designs as well as “sub-critical” underground
tests, the world held its breath in the wake of India and Pakistan’s
nuclear tests and forged ahead to negotiate even stronger commitments
for nuclear disarmament in 2000. Yet the nuclear weapons states
were still at itspending billions for research, design and
testing short of full scale underground explosionsto keep improving
and expanding their nuclear arsenals.
I remember when we stopped the diplomatic clock and hung out for
an extra day of negotiations to reach consensus on the 13 steps
in 2000. Both China and Russia commented, after the gavel fell,
that if we failed to maintain the “strategic stability”
of the ABM Treaty, all bets were off. During this 2005 Review, the
headlines actually screamed the news that the US was planning to
weaponize space to dominate the earth, having abrogated the ABM
Treaty in 2002 under the guise of building a “missile defense”.
The good news is that we can’t fool ourselves any longer about
the positions of the nuclear weapons states. And it’s clear
that the United States is setting the pace for unlawful behavior.
I found it extremely curious that there was little mention of the
report that appeared in Novosti, during this Conference, that Russia
was prepared to negotiate for huge cuts in its arsenaldown
to 1500 warheads or less. Here’s an offer to break the logjam
on nuclear disarmament! For it’s obvious that if Russia and
the US actually committed to reduce their arsenals to 1000 weapons
or so, we could get all the countries to the table and finally nail
down the steps we must take to save our world from a nuclear holocaust.
The shock and dismay of the vast majority of participants at this
failed meeting will galvanize us to address the known threatthe
shameful influence of the military-corporate-scientific establishment
in the United States. NGOs and governments have begun planning for
parallel processesin the General Assembly, at the June meeting
of NATO, at the World Court, with the new conference of Nuclear
Weapons Free Zones parties, and with gathering alliances of law-abiding
countries working with NGOs to clear a path forward.
One hopeful note is that we have shaken the foundation of our delusions
that we can keep giving nations the key to the bomb factory, spreading
“peaceful” nuclear reactors around the world, while
still being able to prevent weapons proliferation. Our NGO proposal
for an International Sustainable Energy Agency, to provide an alternative
to the toxic effects of nuclear power, is garnering new interest.
The rising engagement of civil society, as we saw in the May 1st
demonstration, in the Mayors Campaign, in the new and growing Parliamentary
Network for Nuclear Disarmament, in the good news from the Belgian
Senate calling for the removal of its US nuclear weapons, is a harbinger
of genuine prospects for nuclear disarmament. We’ll still
need regime change in the US, but a burgeoning mass of nations and
NGOs are ready to start examining the legal, political, and technical
steps required to put an end to the nuclear age. We certainly won’t
wait five more years. The explicit approbation of the rest of the
world, for the mad cowboy nuclearism in the wild west of the United
States, will be very helpful to those of us living in the belly
of the beast in mobilizing public pressure to shift US policies
towards a saner and safer world.
The NPT crisis concerns
us all
by Praful Bidwai
(The writer is a Delhi-based researcher, peace and human rights
activist, and former newspaper editor)
It is a telling comment on the narrowing of the scope of public
debate in South Asia that a recent major development that concerns
global security has found hardly any mention in the news columns
of our press, leave alone the comment pages. This is the disastrous
collapse of the second Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT). The four weeks-long meeting failed to produce a consensus
declaration or even an agreed account of the worrisome developments
that have taken place since the last such conference, in 2000, and
the progress (or lack of it) on the
commitments made by the five "recognised" nuclear weapons-states
(NWS) in respect of disarmament.
It does not speak well of our "strategic community" that
it should be so indifferent to events that have far-reaching implications
for the spread of nuclear weapons and the prospect for global disarmament.
But wait a minute! Perhaps what's at work is not indifference at
all, but quiet, smug, cynical rejoicing that the NPT conference
ended in failure and the non-proliferation agenda has received a
setback. Since non-proliferation is no longer in the limelight,
and since neither Pakistan nor India is a signatory to the NPT,
there will be reduced pressure on the two states to demonstrate
nuclear restraint. We can carry on stockpiling fissile material,
build more and more
bombs and make or acquire more and more missiles, warplanes and
ships that can deliver them -- so that our governments can assuredly
roast millions of non-combatant civilians to gory death or turn
them into specks of radioactive dust!
However, the failure of the conference raises the level of nuclear
danger all over the globe, not excluding South Asia. In particular,
it makes nuclear proliferation more likely -- both through the spread
of a nuclear capability to new states, and through the development
of new designs for existing weapons in states that already have
them. South Asia cannot be immune from that danger.
As it happens, some of the states involved are either close to
our region (Iran), or have had military transactions with us (North
Korea). One of them is being fervently wooed by both our governments.
So, why did the NPT review fail? The short answer is that the world's
leading nuclear powers do not have the political will to defend
and abide by the Grand Bargain that lies at the core of the treaty
-- to accept the obligation to disarm their own nuclear weapons
in exchange for the rest of the world, consisting of some 180-odd
non-nuclear weapons-states, agreeing not to make nuclear weapons.
The NWS' failure produced a climate of utter cynicism, which allowed
aspiring nuclear powers like Iran to run rings around everyone else.
This also made it possible for the total of 153 governments present
to get so entangled in procedural disputes that they could not even
agree to a working agenda for the first 10 days of the conference!
At the core of the NWS' failure was the United States' attempt
to manipulate the Review Conference in such a way that Washington
would be under no obligation to get rid of its nuclear weapons,
but the non-NWS would be more effectively prevented from having
them than in the past.
Five years ago, the US and the other four NWS agreed to 13 steps,
including acknowledging the principle of irreversibility for all
nuclear disarmament and arms reduction measures, bringing the Comprehensive
Test Ban Treaty into force at an early date, completing talks on
a fissile material cut-off treaty, and executing an "unequivocal"
undertaking to eliminate nuclear arsenals.
The Bush administration says it no longer supports the 13 steps.
The 2000 consensus agreement is "merely historical" and
can be set aside -- especially in the light of the terrorist attacks
of September 11, 2001.
The US has "unsigned" the CTBT and reneged on many other
commitments. It wants to develop "usable" mini-nukes and
redesign old-generation bombs for "bunker-buster" capabilities
against terrorists and weapons facilities hidden deep underground.
The US and Britain have launched multi-billion dollar programmes
to do research on fusion-based
weapons, and space-based nuclear weapons.
The US believes the NPT can only work if it allows it to keep its
nuclear weapons. But Article VI of the Treaty explicitly mandates
the total elimination of nuclear weapons. According to an important
decision of the International Court of Justice of 1996, the NWS
have a duty not just to pursue, but to bring to a successful conclusion,
talks for the complete elimination of nuclear weapons. The ICJ is
the world's highest authority on international law.
The US's strategy at the Review Conference turned out to be counterproductive
at least in part. Because the NWS stonewalled any discussion of
nuclear arms reduction and disarmament, the non-NWS too refused
to discuss how new proliferation threats might be met.
For instance, if an NPT signatory uses the access the treaty provides
to civilian nuclear technology to reach the threshold of becoming
a nuclear state, and then decides to walk out of the treaty, what
can and should the international community do? Should the present
regime of inspections be modified? How to dismantle the global black
market in nuclear technology and materials -- not just through AQ
Khan "Wal-Mart", but through leaks in the former Eastern
bloc and other countries? Should there be multilateral efforts to
press North Korea to roll back its nuclear weapons programme? Or
should the task be left to the US, Russia, Japan and other major
powers?
The US has shown it has no coherent strategy to deal with any of
these issues. It periodically threatens North Korea and Iran with
military "action", but has not calculated the real cost,
including possible retaliatory attacks on its own 35,000-plus troops
stationed in South Korea. It has pursued tough sanctions against
Iran, but President Bush himself admits to the failure of the sanctions
strategy.
The US is now aggressively promoting a Proliferation Security Initiative
(PSI), under which signatories co-operate to halt suspect nuclear
shipments everywhere, especially to "rogue states". But
the PSI has just 21 active participants. And, it leaves out of the
net "friendly", "cooperative" regimes, which
are useful to the US in the "war on terrorism".
The real tragedy today is that the world has not been able to fully
implement what has been termed its most successful and significant
disarmament agreement -- even though more than a decade has passed
since the Cold War ended, destroying the last excuse for the existence
of nuclear weapons. The globe continues to be menaced by some 27,000
nuclear weapons, each capable of killing hundreds of thousands of
people at one go. Thousands of these weapons are on high alert;
some might even go off accidentally.
All states have a stake in the elimination of nuclear weapons,
including India and Pakistan. Nothing would be more worthy than
that the two states should bilaterally agree to nuclear risk reduction
and comprehensive nuclear restraint measures, and then jointly campaign
for the global de-alerting of nuclear weapons -- they have both
supported resolutions demanding this in the UN -- as the first step
to complete nuclear disarmament.
Alas, the issue is not on their agenda at the moment
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