Moving Beyond Missile Defense

It is widely assumed that the plans of the US government to deploy a National Missile Defense (NMD) against ballistic missiles from so-called "rogues states"' pose considerable technical problems and have far-reaching implications for international security and stability. Reactions and countermeasures from other countries, in particular from Russia and China, may undermine the efficiency of such a system, but may also contribute to an arms race between offensive and defensive missiles, with unforeseeable costs and risks. A technically questionable and expensive missile defense system is unable to reduce proliferation dangers but would rather increase them. Thus, NMD and its regional Theater Missile Defense (TMD) counterparts affect many countries.

As opposed to the US government’s attempt to make everyone believe that neither missile proliferation nor missile defense (nor the space threat) can be stopped, it is important to emphasize that in view of the technical difficulties of both missile development and missile defense there is time for political debate and alternative solutions. The problems of missile proliferation must be viewed in the wider context of regional and global security. If global missile threats beyond those of the nuclear weapon states could be prevented by political means, missile defenses would become obsolete. While the international community discusses the role and implications of missile defense, the political alternatives are largely neglected.

The project "Moving Beyond Missile Defense" of the International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation (INESAP), in collaboration with the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation (NAPF), assesses the problems posed by missile proliferation and missile defense, and explores options to resolve these problems. The project is to serve as a nucleus for an international initiative and a movement that prevents a missile race and promotes alternatives that show ways out of the arms race. The following issues are on the agenda:

1. What is the status of the current and potential future missile threat in different regions? How efficient have previous control efforts been, such as START and the Missile Technology Control Regime?
2. Is missile defense a realistic instrument to prevent the missile threat, given the possibility of countermeasures? What are the feasibility, effectiveness and costs of missile defense, and the implications with regard to international security and stability, disarmament and arms control (ABM Treaty, Deep Cuts)?
3. Which instruments (political, legal, technical, economic) are possible to reduce a missile threat and prevent a missile race on earth and in space? And how are they evaluated with regard to efficiency, costs, and risks compared to missile defense? How can the international control of ballistic missiles, missile defenses, and space weapons be strengthened?

A critical analysis of missiles and missile defense is a precondition for the development of alternatives and the strengthening of international cooperation in this field. Scientific-technical expertise is essential, in particular with regard to the analysis of current and future missile capabilities, the technical feasibility of missile defense, and the outline of science-based concepts, for instance with regard to the design of verification systems. In addition to scientific expertise for the analysis of the problem and its resolution, a mechanism is required that introduces the results into the political debate.

Therefore the project pursues a dual strategy of concept development and its promotion:

1. An international Study Group of experts is to be formed to evaluate the problem and develop alternative concepts. The main issues are to be explored by subgroups which exchange and discuss their results among each other, both at and between meetings. Results and recommendations will be made available by way of reports that are widely distributed.
2. The thematic work is to be closely integrated into a policy-oriented process. In order to strengthen the science-policy interface and to broaden the basis of support for the project, political decision makers, diplomats, the media, and NGOs should be involved in the activities of concept development and its presentation in selected regions. The project supports diplomatic initiatives directed at improving international control and cooperation in this field.

The project will raise public awareness and understanding of the problems, so that individuals and groups will be able to voice their concerns about the dangers of a missile race and lobby for alternatives. The activities range from small informal briefings for politicians and media to workshops and conferences that attract wider attention. The project is intended to function as a catalyst for strengthening cooperation and building ties among those who are willing to cooperate, both on the governmental and non-governmental levels. In addition to striving for direct contact, results will be distributed in the print media and on the Internet, in particular in the INESAP Information Bulletin, briefing books, and papers. Some scientific results will be explored in greater depth in technical reports and conference proceedings.

With this international endeavor, INESAP hopes to introduce science-based proposals into the national and international debate and the political decision making process on missile defense and to promote feasible and adequate responses to the missile threat that do not undermine international stability but enhance international cooperation.

Contacts:

• Regina Hagen (INESAP Coordinator), Jürgen Scheffran (project chairman), INESAP, c/o IANUS, Hochschulstrasse 4, D-64289 Darmstadt, Germany; Tel. [49] (6151) 16 4468, fax 16 6039; e-mail: inesap@hrzpub.tu-darmstadt.de or scheffran@hrzpub.tu-darmstadt.de, www.inesap.org

• David Krieger, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, PMB 121, 1187 Coast Village Road, Suite 1, Santa Barbara, CA 93108-2794, Tel. [1] (805) 965 34 43, fax 568-0466, e-mail: dkrieger@napf.org, www.napf.org

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